2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:
​
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller

Hi all,
To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future.
If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.)
Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price.
Check out my DD below:
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller

Corrections at bottom
I'm a retarded GenXer who YOLO'd junior silver miner OTM call options in 2011 and lost a truckload of cash. But I kept my phyzz until a freak boating accident sunk it all. Oh well, this isn't financial advice, I'm a proven idiot, and nobody should listen to me.
I've learned a lot about the silver markets charlatans since then. Mike Maloney is a forever pumper. Peter Schiff is a suit and shill. Doug Casey lives on a ranch in Argentina but has his head far up his ass. Since you retards love to lose it all, go listen to those guys. But there are some very serious voices in the precious metals market that have proven the fraud and manipulation and even come up with ways around it: Ted Butler (commodity analysis), Eric Sprott (creator of $PSLV), James Dines (legendary newsletter writer), and James Turk (creator of goldmoney.com).
Silver is the biggest opportunity for profit that the general public could broadly participate in. If the price of silver goes up, the miners will see amplified gains. Juniors would explode into the alpha centuri (13,000% gains or more, easily). The reason we know this is because it's been tried before by people smarter than any of us (Hunt Brothers 1980, Buffet's 1997-2006 silver purchase, and 2010 mini-squeeze-beatdown). Even that lucky commie bastard Max Keiser tried to rally enough retards together to squeeze silver and "crash JPMorgan" before he got rich off bitcoin. {If you can't read, there is a video breakdown: search "youtube Is a WallStreetBets Silver Squeeze Possible" for a pretty good historical overview}
The forces at play in the precious metals market are global, historical, and backed by the biggest banks, not some meaningless hedgefund. It's the real deal. American's money used to be backed in bi-metallic standard, all coinage had some precious metals (pre 1964 dimes, silver dollars/half dollars and paper currency all convertible to silver or gold). All real silverbugs ultimate goal is to return to a bi-metalic backed US currency. It's a big part of the precious metals folklore, and the fact that the last straw that sealed President Kennedy's fate was signing Executive Order 11110 which would have returned the US to a silver standard. This would have restored faith in our financial system, eliminate the scourge of inflation, balanced the value of labor versus financial assets, and allow regular workers to save instead of being forced to participate in a ridiculous casino just to have a retirement.
Attention CNBC media whores reading this: who is the villain of this story? Blythe Masters. Check her out, she's actually pretty hot. {search: "Blythe Masters wants to upend finance again twitter bloomberg"} And she is a goddamn evil mastermind that created the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Yes, she created the financial weapon of mass destruction that sunk the global economy in 2008, she is first author on the paper. Then she went on to lead the JP Morgan precious metals trading desk to unwind Bear Sterns silver short book by containing any rally (that's how I lost all my money). Now she is working on blockchain technology that can be used by the banking cartels as a weapon to further enslave the entire world. And, yes, you degenerates, she has a sexy British accent and a killer set of legs. {search "egonzehnder blythe masters shares career advice daughters 2019"}
Steven Cohen is a fucking worm to Blythe Masters. Any financial instrument like SLV would be manipulated easily by her and the ilk that inherited her positions at JPMorgan and other bullion banks. There is only 1 way to perform a real silver squeeze: physical ownership (not paper ownership like SLV, there is a big difference). The commodity futures markets is called the COMEX. The COMEX has about a 250 contracts trade for every 1 ounce of actual silver available for delivery. That means if a handful of commodity traders stand for delivery and the physical delivery can't be made it will crash the COMEX. Sure, they might be forced to settle for cash like the Hunt brothers, but it will crash the COMEX and the price will soar nonetheless. It's a real thing, people have done it, there is no stopping that it will happen again. And what happens historically is a giant leap for junior miners: Copper Lake in 1980 jumped 13,000%. The average silver junior miner lept over 2,300%). It was soo easy to make money, even an ape could do it.
So, how do we avoid the manipulation?

1. $SLV is a scam! SLV's custodian is JP Morgan, the vampire squid sucking on the face of humanity! Don't fall for it. They can never be trusted. Most silverbugs don't even believe they have any silver or gold in their ETFs of any significant amounts, otherwise there would be outside audits which don't happen. Anybody suggesting to use SLV is a pumper, paid shill, or doesn't know the history. And yes, now that JPMorgan has paid almost a Billion dollar fine for manipulating the silver market, they are long silver or at least are holding it as custodian for other players. So if silver goes up will JPMorgan win...yeah maybe. But that's not the point, you'd win, I'd win, the people of the world win.

2. $PSLV is not an appropriate vehicle. PSLV is a closed end fund. Eric Sprott is not going to buy any more silver and issue any more shares. Premium to NAV went over 20% and he didn't do it. PSLV serves a purpose (tax savings), but they don't acquire on commodity exchanges unless a big player takes delivery. If you actually have enough money to take delivery 10,000 oz - then PSLV works.
So what to really do: Buy PSLV or physical For the paranoid, you can create an account on goldmoney.com, put money into silver and it is owned by you, stored in Switzerland and registered in the Island of Jersey (for the most part outside of financial oligarchy control). You have to fill out a form on your taxes each year but buying/selling stonks have the same requirement, just a different form. Again, NOT financial advice - I'm a proven town idiot and hold no credentials no should you listen to me.
Goldmoney.com was created by James Turk, exactly for this purpose. So people can own phyzz without having to hide a 1000lb safe in your wife's boyfriend's basement or sink your phyzz into a pond. And also he set it up outside of the US so if the US government seized physical (like 1934!), his customers would have some chance at taking physical delivery in Switzerland. I wholeheartedly believed that the crash of 2008 would lead to this eventual outcome if silver went really high and it almost did at $50, at $100 the champagne corks stop poppin.
So then what went happened in 2011? Blythe Masters happened. JP Morgan and the other bullion banks beat down the precious metals market in a coordinated attack of naked short selling. Punishing beat downs, if you're into that kinda thing!
The silver spike of 2010/11 happened because some silverbugs bought physical metals and there were shortages at the retail level, just like what has started today. In all honesty, there were probably 10,000 Silverbugs in existence at that time all acting as lone actors on a handful of forums. This time could be much different, if a lot of apes bought silver and the intermediaries held for delivery on the COMEX this could break the back of the silver cartel and Lord Rothschild would roll over in his grave. And silver junior miners would skyrocket!
I love silver, what will I buy? 90-100% into some other form of physical ownership (coins/or goldmoney.com). $PSLV is also an acceptable vehicle but doesn't squeeze LBMA/COMEX supplies {search: "sprott physical silver trust December 2020 fact sheet"}. And 0-10% into long-dated calls or shares of junior minors. Some pumper was saying $AG (First Majestic). Sure maybe, or just use $SILJ a basket of silver juniors that would all explode and give you less single company risk to enjoy the rally. Get your popcorn.
And those boomers, will they help buy silver? Don't count on it, but that's a different type of rant.
TL;DR
Buy either physical silver, $PSLV, or goldmoney.com and also a little bit of silver miners to amplify gainz. Blythe Masters is a demon. Break the COMEX. Restore our heritage of sound money.
Corrections: PSLV has registered to issue $1.5billion more shares. That’s a lot of shiny silver. See the link in the comments below. It’s looks like PSLV will be retails best bet to apply pressure on the physical market. And if bullion dealers become stocked out, and PSLV stands for delivery, this strategy would work.

TL;DR - I finally realized that my “moon” is just being able to support my family and enjoy my job at the same time.
—
My wife and I used to work in the film industry, which shut down completely all year during Covid. In April and May we rebalanced our savings (had been almost entirely stonks) and bought some bitcoin. At the time it seemed like a bold move, but we had no idea when we would be back to work, or what was going to happen. Gold seemed like a good idea, until you actually look into trying to buy gold, and that’s why we revisited BTC, which I had held for some time in 2017 and sold before it crashed, but had basically gotten out of.
So, we started collecting stimulus and unemployment, and I stopped freaking out about when we’d be back to work. Instead, we decided immediately to get some film equipment we’d been looking at, and start shooting a YouTube show of her cooking, and try to put together a Covid-ready shoot of a movie we wrote the script for. We figured - hey, let’s invest this money in equipment and skills. Our thought was we’d start a video production company after the pandemic.
Well, fast forward, we actually managed to shoot our movie safely, and it’s being edited now, and a friend of mine hired me to edit videos for his company. It was basically the ideal job in every respect - work from home, for good friends of mine, start late, editing videos of celebrities talking to each other (I signed an NDA or I would name drop). I have loved working for them, and I was learning some skills to put towards our own business, right? Everything was great... except the pay. It was half what I used to make, plus 1099 instead of W2, plus non-Union so I don’t get any health care benefits and pension. But it’s not all about the money, right? And now isn’t really the time to be picky, I was unemployed for an entire year.
So I took the job and was loving it. Then two weeks ago my wife came to me and told me she is pregnant with our first child. Here’s the funny part - we know the exact day this child was conceived, because we tried exactly one time. So the pregnancy was a bit of a shock. But still, the happiest news I’ve ever gotten.
I started being terrible at my job. Couldn’t focus, couldn’t hit deadlines. All I could think about was the riot at the Capitol, and Bitcoin’s price, and reading about bitcoin, and reading about sound money. Because, oh yeah, I convinced my wife to move all of our savings to Bitcoin right BEFORE we found out we were pregnant. We both agree that on some level we both knew, that the hormones and pheromones were signaling us to make plans for the baby our conscious brains didn’t know about yet. And before we did the pregnancy test, we had already planned to move everything over.
So today I finally wrote them and quit my job. Because I realized there is so much more at stake, and what they are able to pay is not sustainable to raise my kid.
I know what I’m doing is the right decision, but even my father asked “aren’t you supposed to have a new job before you quit the old one”? And I asked him “if Warren Buffet wants to sit in cash and look for a good deal, no one tells him he’s being lazy, right?” He seemed to think that was a good point, so he dropped it.
Here’s where I’m at - my wife and I have everything we could want. We made a movie from a script we wrote together. We have a baby on the way. We have a house with a low mortgage and the money to pay it off if we want to, and we have some bitcoin beyond that still too. We have decided to sit on the sidelines like Buffet and wait this out.
Obviously there’s also tremendous upside of BTC goes to $100k. Then we’ll look like geniuses. But here’s the thing - all we will have done for that money is read a lot and push some buttons. And suddenly wealth will transfer out of society at large and to us. We can’t build a society where all wealth creation is a casino.
And this is why we need Bitcoin. We need sound money, precisely so that no one can push a few buttons one afternoon and become a millionaire. We need the money supply to be stable so that prices can be stable so that we can all plan for our futures, and not keep gambling like we have for the last century.
I know I made the right decision quitting the job, but at the same time, it’s hard not be mad that the whole issue is just a price mismatch between what they have budgeted and what I need to make. The only reason prices fluctuate like this is monetary debasement. Here we have friends working together making things, and just because the fed is printing too much money, that arrangement becomes untenable. It’s insane.
None of this holds a candle to my neighbor, though. He and his partner have several kids. He’s been trying to buy a house, and he’s pre-approved, but then he got offered a Union job that paid double. Same kind of work, he SHOULD take it. But because of the rules they’ve written to protect from bad loans being written, he would lose his pre-approved status if he switched jobs, and couldn’t get it back til he was Union for two years. So he didn’t. In what fucked up world do we live in where he has to turn down a better job to get a house? In what world do we build luxury condos next to homeless people? In what world are there food surpluses and starving kids? A world without sound money.
I used to think holding on for dear life was about the volatility, and I guess it was. But now I realize, it’s about sound money, low time preference, a society that looks forward to the future - it’s about holding on because life is dear.
The baby’s due in September. Between now and then I’m now totally free to get this world ready for them.
Thanks for reading y’all. Happy hodling.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Hi everyone.
Funko is a great stock that I believe will do well this year. Internet search traffic for Funko has been increasing and is at all-time highs over the last couple of months. The company is selling more of their toys directly to customers through their e-commerce shop (which allows them to capture higher retail revenues than wholesale revenues). And demand for collectibles and toys continues to be strong.
Here is a DD I wrote on the company below. I would love to get your thoughts.

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.

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Air Conflicts Double Pack
Air Conflicts: Aces of World War II
Air Conflicts: Pacific Carriers
Air Conflicts: Secret Wars
Air Conflicts: Secret Wars - Ultimate Edition
Air Conflicts: Vietnam
Air Conflicts: Vietnam Ultimate Edition
Air Diver
Air Fortress
Air Hockey
Air Management '96
Air Race Championship
Air Raid
Air Raid 3
Air Raiders
Air Ranger 2 Plus: Rescue Helicopter
Air Ranger 2: Rescue Helicopter
Air Ranger: Rescue Helicopter
Air Rescue
Air Strike
Air Traffic Chaos
Air Zonk
Air-Sea Battle
AirBlade
AirBoarder 64
AirForce Delta
AirForce Delta Storm
AirForce Delta Strike
AirGrave
Airaki
Airborne Troops: Countdown to D-Day
Aircars
Airlock
Aironauts
Airs Adventure
Airship Q
Airwolf
Airwolf (Japan)
Aishiau Kotoshika Dekinai
Aisle Lord
Aitakute...Your Smiles in My Heart
Aiyoku no Eustia: Angel's Blessing
Aka-Chan Doubutsu Sono
Akagawa Jirou Mystery: Tsuki no Hikari
Akagawa Jirou Mystery: Yasoukyoku - Hon ni Manekareta Satsujin
Akagawa Jirou no Yuurei Ressha
Akagawa Jirou: Majotachi no Nemuri: Fukkatsusai
Akagawa Jirou: Yasoukyoku
Akagawa Jirou: Yasoukyoku 2
Akagi: Touhaiden
Akagi: Yami ni Furitatta Tensai
Akai Ito
Akai Ito DS
Akai Ito Destiny DS
Akai Katana
Akai Suna Ochiru Tsuki
Akane Iro ni Somaru Saka Portable
Akane Iro ni Somaru Saka: Parallel
Akatsuki no Amaneka to Aoi Kyojin
Akatsuki no Goei Trinity
Akaya Akashiya Ayakashino
Akazu no Ma
Akazukin ChaCha
Akiba's Beat
Akiba's Trip
Akiba's Trip 2+A
Akiba's Trip Plus
Akiba's Trip: Undead & Undressed
Akihabara Dennou Kumi Peta Pies!
Akira
Akira Psycho Ball
Akiyama Jin No Suugaku Mystery
Akko de Pon! Ikasama Hourouki
Akko ni Omakase! Brain Shock
Akogare Girls Collection: Lovely Youchien
Akogare Girls Collection: Mister Donut DS
Akogare Girls Collection: Ohanaya-San Monogatari
Akogare Girls Collection: Pika Pika Nurse Monogatari
Akogare Girls Collection: Suteki ni Nurse Days
Akudaikan
Akudaikan 2: Mousouden
Akudaikan 3
Akudaikan Manyuuki
Akudaikan Manyuuki: Seigi no Yaiba
Akuji the Heartless
Akuma Zensho Dainishuu
Akuma-kun: Makai no Wana
Akumajou Dracula
Akumajou Dracula X: Gekka no Yasoukyoku
Akumajou Special: Boku Dracula-kun
Akuu Senki Raijin
Al Unser Jr.'s Road to the Top
Al Unser Jr.'s Turbo Racing
Alabama Meets Will Vi
Aladdin Magic Racer
Alan Hansen's Sports Challenge
Alan Wake
Alarm for Cobra 11: Crash Time
Alarm fuer Cobra 11 Vol II
Albert Odyssey
Albert Odyssey 2: Jashin no Taidou
Albert Odyssey: Legend of Eldean
Album Club: Mune Kyun * Saint Poria Jogakuin
Alcahest
Aldynes
Aleck Bordon Adventure: Tower & Shaft Advance
Alekhine's Gun
Alex Ferguson's Player Manager 2001
Alex Ferguson's Player Manager 2002
Alex Kidd in Miracle World
Alex Kidd in Shinobi World
Alex Kidd in the Enchanted Castle
Alex Kidd: High-Tech World
Alex Kidd: The Lost Stars
Alex Rider: Stormbreaker
Alexandra Ledermann: Summer Camp Adventures
Alexi Lalas International Soccer
Alfa Romeo Racing Italiano
Alfred Chicken
Alfred's Adventure
Alia's Carnival! Sacrament
Alias
Alice in Cyberland
Alice in Wonderland
Alice no Paint Adventure
Alice on Borderlines
Alice's Mom's Rescue
Alice: Madness Returns
Alien
Alien 3
Alien Breed Trilogy
Alien Brigade
Alien Chaos 3D
Alien Crush
Alien Front Online
Alien Hominid
Alien Invaders Plus!
Alien Monster Bowling League
Alien Olympics
Alien Raiders
Alien Resurrection
Alien Soldier
Alien Storm
Alien Syndrome
Alien Trilogy
Alien vs. Predator
Alien vs. Predator: The Last of His Clan
Alien: Isolation
Alienators: Evolution Continues
Aliens Versus Predator: Extinction
Aliens in the Attic
Aliens vs. Predator
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Aliens: Colonial Marines
Aliens: Infestation
Aliens: Thanatos Encounter
Alisia Dragoon
Alive
All 1
All Grown Up! Express Yourself
All Japan Pro Wrestling Featuring Virtua
All Japan Woman Pro Wrestling
All Kamen Rider: Rider Generation
All Kamen Rider: Rider Generation 2
All Kamen Rider: Rider Revolution
All Night Nippon Super Mario Bros.
All Round Hunter
All Star 5-A-Side Football
All Star Action
All Star Cheer Squad
All Star Cheer Squad 2
All Star Karate
All Star Pro-Wrestling
All Star Racing
All Star Racing 2
All Star Soccer
All Star Tennis '99
All Star Tennis 2000
All Star Tennis 99
All Star Watersports
All-Pro Basketball
All-Pro Football 2K8
All-Star 1997 Featuring Frank Thomas
All-Star Baseball
All-Star Baseball 2000
All-Star Baseball 2001
All-Star Baseball 2002
All-Star Baseball 2003
All-Star Baseball 2004
All-Star Baseball 2005
All-Star Baseball 99
All-Star Fighters
All-Star Mahjong: Kareinaru Shoubushi Kara no Chousen
All-Star Major League Baseball
All-Star Professional Wrestling II
All-Star Professional Wrestling III
All-Star Slammin' D-Ball
All-Star Tennis 2
Alleyway
Allied Ace Pilots
Allied General
Alnam no Kiba: Juuzoku Juuni Shinto Densetsu
Alnam no Tsubasa: Shoujin no Sora no Kanata e
Alone in the Dark
Alone in the Dark 2
Alone in the Dark: Inferno
Alone in the Dark: One-Eyed Jack's Revenge
Alone in the Dark: The New Nightmare
Alpha Beam With Ernie
Alpha Mission
Alpha Mission II
Alpha Protocol
Alpha and Omega
Alpine Racer 3
Alpine Ski Racing 2007
Alpine Skiing 2005
Alpine Skiing!
Alshark
Alter Echo
Altered Beast
Altered Beast: Guardian of the Realms
Altered Space: A 3-D Alien Adventure
Alundra
Alundra 2: A New Legend Begins
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
Alzadick: Summer Carnival `92
Amaekata wa Kanojo Nari ni.
Amagami
Amagi Shien
Amagon
Amagoushi no Yakata
Amagoushi no Yakata Portable: Ichiyagi Wa, Saisho no Junan
Amatsumi Sora ni! Kumo no Hatate ni
Amazing Adventures: The Forgotten Ruins
Amazing Island
Amazing Penguin
Amazing Tater
America Daitouryou Senkyo: United State Presidental Race
America Daitouryou Senkyo: United State Presidential Race
America Oudan Ultra Quiz
America Oudan Ultra Quiz: Shijou Saidai no Tatakai
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 2
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 3
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 4
America's Army: Rise of a Soldier
America's Army: True Soldiers
America's Greatest Game Shows: Wheel of Fortune & Jeopardy!
America's Next Top Model
America's Next Top Model (2008)
America's Test Kitchen: Let's Get Cooking
American Bass Challenge
American Battle Dome
American Chopper
American Chopper 2: Full Throttle
American Dream
American Girl: Julie Finds a Way
American Girl: Kit Mystery Challenge!
American Gladiators
American Idol
American Mensa Academy
American Ninja Warrior
American Pool
American Pool II
Amerzone: The Explorer's Legacy
Amida
Amidar
Amnesia
Amnesia Twin Pack
Amnesia World
Amnesia: Crowd
Amnesia: Later
Amnesia: Later x Crowd V. Edition
Amnesia: Memories
Amok
Among the Sleep
Amped 2
Amped 3
Amped: Freestyle Snowboarding
Amplitude
An American Tail
An American Tail: Fievel Goes West
An American Tail: Fievel's Gold Rush
AnEarth Fantasy Stories: First Volume
Anan Kanshuu: Onna Dikara Kinkyuu Up! DS
Anarchy Reigns
Anastasia
Anata Dake no Private Lesson - DS de Hajimeru - Tipness no Yoga
Anata o Yurusanai
Ancient Magic: Bazoe! Mahou Sekai
Ancient Roman: Power of Dark Side
And 1 Streetball
And-Kensaku
Andre Agassi Tennis
Andre Panza Kick Boxing
Andretti Racing
Andrew Lloyd Webber Musicals: Sing and Dance
Andro Dunos
Android Assault: The Revenge of Bari-Arm
Anesan
Angel Blade: Neo Tokyo Guardians
Angel Cat Sugar
Angel Collection
Angel Graffiti S: Anata e no Profile
Angel Graffiti: Anata e no Profile
Angel Love Online
Angel Paradise Vol. 1
Angel Paradise Vol. 2: Eshinu Kimika
Angel Present
Angel Profile
Angel Senki
Angel Wish
Angel Wish: Kimi no Egao ni Chu!
Angel's Feather
Angel's Feather: Kuro no Zanei
Angelic Concert
Angelique
Angelique Duet
Angelique Etoile
Angelique History
Angelique Retour
Angelique Special
Angelique Special 2
Angelique Trois
Angelique Trois: Aizouhen
Angelique Voice Fantasy
Angelique: Maren no Rokukishi
Angelique: Tenkuu no Requiem
Angler's Club: Ultimate Bass Fishing 3D
Angolmois 99
Angry Birds Star Wars
Angry Birds Trilogy
AniMates
AnimAction
Anima: Gate of Memories
Animal Boxing
Animal Breeder
Animal Breeder 2
Animal Breeder 3
Animal Breeder 4
Animal Crossing
Animal Crossing: City Folk
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome Amiibo
Animal Crossing: Wild World
Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival
Animal Football
Animal Genius
Animal Hospital
Animal Kingdom: Wildlife Expedition
Animal Mania
Animal Paradise
Animal Paradise Wild
Animal Planet: Emergency Vets
Animal Planet: Vet Collection
Animal Planet: Vet Life
Animal Snap: Rescue Them 2 By 2
Animal Soccer World
Animal Yokochou: Doki Doki Kyuushutsu Daisakusen! no Maki
Animal Yokochou: Doki*Doki Shinkyuu Shiken! no Kan
Animaniacs
Animaniacs Ten Pin Alley
Animaniacs: Lights, Camera, Action!
Animaniacs: The Great Edgar Hunt
Animastar
Animastar GB
Anime Eikaiwa: 15 Shounen Hyouryuuhen
Anime Eikaiwa: Tondemo Nezumi Daikatsuyaku
Anime Eikaiwa: Totoi
Anime Slot Revolution: Pachi-Slot Kidou Senshi Gundam II - Ai Senshi Hen
Animetic Story Game 1: Card Captor Sakura
Animorphs
Animorphs: Shattered Reality
Ankh: Curse of the Scarab King
Ankh: Tutankhamen no Nazo
Ankoku Shinwa: Yamato Takeru Densetsu
Annet Futatabi
Anno 1701: Dawn of Discovery
Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai
Anoko Doko Noko
Anoko wa Ore Kara Hanarenai
Anone DS
Another Bible
Another Century's Episode Portable
Another Code: R - A Journey into Lost Memories
Another Memories
Another Mind
Another Time Another Leaf: Kagami no Naka no Tantei
Another World
Anpanman Niko Niko Party
Anpanman to Asobo: ABC Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobo: Aiueo Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobo: New Aiueo Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobu: Aiueo Kyoushitsu DX
Anpanman to Touch de Waku Waku Training
Anpanman to Touch de Wakuwaku Training
Anpfiff: Der RTL Fussball-Manager
Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Assassin Ikusei Keikaku!!
Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Korosensei Daihouimou!!
Ant Nation
Antarctic Adventure
Anticipation
Antiphona no Seikahime: Tenshi no Score Op.A
Antz
Antz Extreme Racing
Antz Racing
Antz World Sportz
Anubis II
Ao Zora to Nakama Tachi: Yume no Bouken
Ao Zora to Nakama Tachi: Yume no Bouken Plus
Ao no 6-gou: Antarctica
Ao no Exorcist: Genkoku no Labyrinth
Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm
Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm HD Edition
Ao-Don DS: Hanabi no Goku & Hanabi no Takumi
Aoi Hagane no Kihei: Space Griffon
Aoi Namida
Aoi Sora no Neosphere: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki 2
Aoi Umi no Tristia Portable: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki
Aoi Umi no Tristia: 10th Anniversary Memorial Pack
Aoi Umi no Tristia: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki
Aoi no Mamade...
Aoishiro
Aoki Densetsu Shoot!
Aoki Kakumeki no Valkyria
Aoki Ookami to Shiroki Mejika: Genchou Hishi
Apache: Air Assault
Apathy: Narugami Gakuen Toshi Densetsu Tantei Kyoku
Ape Escape
Ape Escape 2
Ape Escape 3
Ape Escape Academy
Ape Escape Academy 2
Ape Escape: Million Monkeys
Ape Escape: On the Loose
Ape Escape: Pumped & Primed
Ape Quest
Apex
Apocalypse
Apocalypse: Desire Next
Apocripha/0
Apollo 11 VR Experience
Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney
Appare! Gateball
Appare! Shogi Jiisan
Apple Town Monogatari
Appleseed
Appleseed EX
Aqua Aqua
Aqua GT
Aqua Kids
Aqua Kitty: Milk Mine Defender DX
Aqua Panic!
Aqua Paradise: Boku no Suizokukan
Aqua Teen Hunger Force Zombie Ninja Pro-Am
Aqua World: Umibi Monogatari
AquaLife
AquaNox: The Angel's Tears
AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match
AquaZone
AquaZone Option Disk Series 1: Angel Fish
AquaZone Option Disk Series 2: Black Molly
AquaZone Option Disk Series 3: Blue Emperor
AquaZone Option Disk Series 4: Clown Loach
AquaZone Option Disk Series 5: False Rummy-Nose
AquaZone: Desktop Life
AquaZone: Life Simulator
Aquaman: Battle for Atlantis
Aquanaut no Kyuujitsu 2
Aquanaut no Kyuujitsu: Memories of Summer 1996
Aquanaut's Holiday
Aquanaut's Holiday: Kakusareta Kiroku
Aquarian Age: Tokyo Wars
Aquarium by DS
Ar nosurge Plus: Ode to an Unborn Star
Ar nosurge: Ode to an Unborn Star
Ar tonelico II: Melody of Metafalica
Ar tonelico Qoga: Knell of Ar Ciel
Ar tonelico: Melody of Elemia
Arabian Nights
Arabians Doubt
Arabians Lost
Arabians Lost & Doubt Twin Pack
Aragami
Araiguma Rascal: Raccoon Rascal
Arashi no Yoruni
Arasuji de Kitaeru Sokumimi no Susume DS
Arasuji de Oboeru Sokudoku no Susume DS
Arc Arena
Arc Rise Fantasia
Arc the Lad
Arc the Lad Collection
Arc the Lad II
Arc the Lad III
Arc the Lad: End of Darkness
Arc the Lad: Twilight of the Spirits
Arcade 3D
Arcade Archives: Darius
Arcade Classic No. 1: Asteroids / Missile Command
Arcade Classic No. 2: Centipede / Millipede
Arcade Classic No. 3: Galaga / Galaxian
Arcade Classic No. 4: Defender / Joust
Arcade Classic Shuu
Arcade Classics
Arcade Classics: Super Breakout / Battlezone
Arcade Classics: Volume One
Arcade Hits: Moon Cresta
Arcade Hits: Raiden
Arcade Hits: Soukyuugurentai
Arcade Party Pak
Arcade Shooter: Ilvelo
Arcade Shooting Gallery
Arcade Smash Hits
Arcade USA
Arcade Zone
Arcana
Arcana Famiglia 2
Arcana Famiglia: Festa Regalo
Arcana Famiglia: La storia della Aracana Famiglia
Arcana Famiglia: La storia della Aracana Famiglia - Ancora
Arcana Famiglia: Vascello Phantasma no Majutsushi
Arcana Heart
Arcana Heart 3
Arcana Heart 3: LOVEMAX!!!!!
Arcana Strikes
Arcania: Gothic 4
Arcania: The Complete Tale
Arch Rivals
Arch Rivals: A Basket Brawl!
Archer MacLean's Super Dropzone
Archer Maclean's 3D Pool
Archer Maclean's Mercury
Archon
Arcobaleno!
Arcobaleno! Portable
Arctic
Arctic Tale
Arctic Thunder
Arcus 1-2-3
Arcus Odyssey
Ardy Lightfoot
Are You Alice?
Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader?
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader: Make the Grade
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? Back to School
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? Make the Grade
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? Game Time
Are! Mo Kore? Mo Momotarou
Area 51
Arena Football
Arena Football: Road to Glory
Arena: Maze of Death
Aretha
Aretha II
Aretha II: Ariel no Fushigi na Tabi
Aretha III
Aretha the Super Famicom
Argos no Juujiken
Argos no Senshi
Argus
Aria: The Natural ~Tooi Yume no Mirage~
Aria: The Origination ~Aoi Hoshi no El Cielo~
Ark of Time
Arkana Senki Ludo
Arkanoid
Arkanoid DS
Arkanoid II
Arkanoid Returns
Arkanoid: Doh It Again
Arkista's Ring
Arle no Bouken: Mahou no Jewel
ArmaGallant: Decks of Destiny
Armada
Armada F/X Racers
Armadillo
Armana no Kiseki
Armed Fighter
Armed and Dangerous
Armen Noir
Armen Noir Portable
Armin Van Buuren: In The Mix
Armor Ambush
Armor Battle
Armor..Attack
Armored Core
Armored Core 2
Armored Core 2: Another Age
Armored Core 3
Armored Core 3 Portable
Armored Core 4
Armored Core V
Armored Core: For Answer
Armored Core: Formula Front
Armored Core: Formula Front - Extreme Battle
Armored Core: Last Raven
Armored Core: Last Raven Portable
Armored Core: Master of Arena
Armored Core: Nexus
Armored Core: Nine Breaker
Armored Core: Project Phantasma
Armored Core: Silent Line Portable
Armored Core: Verdict Day
Armored Encounter! / Sub Chase!
Armorines: Project S.W.A.R.M.
Arms
Arms' Heart
Army Corps of Hell
Army Men
Army Men 2
Army Men 3D
Army Men Advance
Army Men Gold: Collector's Edition
Army Men World War: Final Front
Army Men World War: Team Assault
Army Men: Air Attack
Army Men: Air Attack 2
Army Men: Air Combat
Army Men: Air Combat - The Elite Missions
Army Men: Green Rogue
Army Men: Major Malfunction
Army Men: Operation Green
Army Men: RTS
Army Men: Sarge's Heroes
Army Men: Sarge's Heroes 2
Army Men: Sarge's War
Army Men: Soldiers of Misfortune
Army Men: Turf Wars
Army Men: World War
Army Men: World War - Land, Sea, Air
Army Rescue
Army of Two
Army of Two: The 40th Day
Army of Two: The Devil's Cartel
Arnold Palmer Tournament Golf
Around The World in 50 Games
Around the World in 80 Days
Arrow Flash
Arslan Senki
Arslan: The Warriors of Legend
Art Academy
Art Academy: Home Studio
Art Academy: Lessons for Everyone
Art Alive
Art Camion Geijutsuden
Art Camion Sugorokuden
Art Master
Art of Fighting
Art of Fighting 2
Art of Fighting 3: The Path of the Warrior
Art of Fighting Anthology
Artelius
Arthur and the Invisibles
Arthur and the Revenge of Maltazard
Arthur to Astaroth no Nazo-Makai-Mura: Incredible Toons
Arthur! Ready to Race
Arthur's Absolutely Fun Day!
Artillery Duel
Artist Tool
Arubarea no Otome ~Uruwashi no Seishikitachi~
Arx Fatalis
Asahi Shinbun Rensai Katou Hifumi Kudan Shogi Shingiryuu
Asaki, Yumemishi
Asameshimae Nyanko
Ashen
Ashes Cricket 2009
Ashita no Joe
Ashita no Joe 2: The Anime Super Remix
Ashita no Joe Touchi: Typing Namida Hashi
Ashita no Joe: Masseki ni Moe Agare!
Ashita no Joe: Masshiro ni Moe Tsukiro!
Asmik-Kun Land
Asmik-kun World 2
Asoberu Eigo: Word Magic DS
Asobi ni Iku yo! Chikyuu Pinchi no Konyaku Sengen
Ason de Chinou Up
Ason de Wakaru - The Party Casino
Asonde Aiueo
Asonde Igo ga Sara ni Tsuyokunaru: Ginsei Igo DS Chuukyuuhen
Asonde Igo ga Tsuyoku naru!! Ginsei Igo DS
Asonde Kazu Suuji
Asonde Shogi ga Kyoukunaru! Kane Hoshi Shogi DX
Asonde Shogi ga Tsuyoku naru!! Ginsei Shogi DS
Asphalt 3D
Asphalt: Injection
Asphalt: Urban GT
Asphalt: Urban GT 2
Aspic: Mahebiou no Noroi
Assassin's Creed
Assassin's Creed Anthology
Assassin's Creed Chronicles
Assassin's Creed Double Pack
Assassin's Creed II
Assassin's Creed II: Complete Edition
Assassin's Creed II: Discovery
Assassin's Creed III
Assassin's Creed III: Liberation
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Assassin's Creed IV: Jackdaw Edition
Assassin's Creed Origins
Assassin's Creed Rogue
Assassin's Creed Syndicate
Assassin's Creed Unity
Assassin's Creed: Altair's Chronicles
Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - The Da Vinci Edition
Assassin's Creed: Connor Saga
Assassin's Creed: Ezio Saga
Assassin's Creed: Ezio Trilogy
Assassin's Creed: Heritage Collection
Assassin's Creed: Revelations
Assassin's Creed: Revelations - Ottoman Edition
Assassin's Creed: The Americas Collection
Assassin's Creed: The Ezio Collection
Assault
Assault City
Assault Rigs
Assault Suit Leynos
Assault Suit Leynos 2
Assault Suits Valken
Assault Suits Valken 2
Assault: Retribution
Assetto Corsa
Astal
Astebreed
Asterix
Asterix & Obelix
Asterix & Obelix Contre Cesar
Asterix & Obelix Take on Caesar
Asterix & Obelix XXL
Asterix & Obelix XXL 2: Mission: Wifix
Asterix & Obelix XXL2: Mission: Las Vegum
Asterix & Obelix: Kick Buttix
Asterix & Obelix: Paf! Par Toutatis!
Asterix Brain Trainer
Asterix and the Great Rescue
Asterix and the Power of the Gods
Asterix and the Secret Mission
Asterix at the Olympic Games
Asterix: Auf Der Suche Nach Idefix
Asterix: Mega Madness
Asterix: The Mansions of the Gods
Asterix: These Romans Are Crazy!
Asteroid Fire
Asteroids
Asteroids Hyper 64
Astonishia Story
Astra Superstars
Astral Bout
AstralAir no Shiroki Eien: White Eternity
Astro Boy
Astro Boy: Omega Factor
Astro Boy: The Video Game
Astro Chase
Astro Fang: Super Machine
Astro Invaders
Astro Kyuudan: Kessen!! Victory Kyuudanhen
Astro Rabby
Astro Robo Sasa
Astro Warrior
Astro Warrior & Pit Pot
Astroblast
Astrology
Astrology DS: The Stars In Your Hands
Astronoka
Astrosmash
Astyanax
Asuka 120% Excellent: Burning Fest. Excellent
Asuka 120% Final: Burning Fest. Final
Asuka 120% Limited: Burning Fest. Limited
Asuka 120% Maxima: Burning Fest. Maxima
Asuka 120% Special: Burning Fest Special
Asuncia: Matsue no Jubaku
Asura's Wrath
Atama de Do! Kotenko Kotenko
Atama ga Yoku Naru - The Me no Training
Atama no Kaiten no Training: Rubik's Cube & Chou Yuumei Puzzle Tachi
Atama o Kitaete Asobu Taisen Yajirushi Puzzle: Puppyinu Vector One
Atari Anniversary Advance
Atari Anniversary Edition
Atari Anniversary Edition Redux
Atari Anthology
Atari Classics Evolved
Atari Flashback Classics: Volume 1
Atari Flashback Classics: Volume 2
Atari Greatest Hits Volume 1
Atari Greatest Hits Volume 2
Atari Karts
Atari Masterpieces Vol. I
Atari Masterpieces Vol. II
Atari Video Cube
Atelier Annie: Alchemists of Sera Island
Atelier Ayesha Plus: The Alchemist of Dusk
Atelier Ayesha: The Alchemist of Dusk
Atelier Escha & Logy Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky
Atelier Escha & Logy: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky
Atelier Firis: The Alchemist and the Mysterious Journey
Atelier Iris 2: The Azoth of Destiny
Atelier Iris 3: Grand Phantasm
Atelier Iris: Eternal Mana
Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings
Atelier Marie + Elie
Atelier Meruru Plus: The Apprentice of Arland
Atelier Meruru: The Apprentice of Arland
Atelier Rorona Plus: The Alchemist of Arland
Atelier Rorona: The Alchemist of Arland
Atelier Shallie Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea
Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea
Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book
Atelier Totori Plus: The Adventurer of Arland
Atelier Totori: The Adventurer of Arland
Athena
Athena no Kateiban: Family Game
Athena ~Awakening from the ordinary life~
Athens 2004
Athletic World
Atlantic Quest
Atlantis
Atlantis III: The New World
Atlantis no Nazo
Atlantis: The Lost Continent
Atlantis: The Lost Tales
Atom Smasher
Atomic Betty
Atomic Punk
Atomic Robo-Kid
Atomic Robo-Kid Special
Atomic Runner
Atrevete a Sonar
Atsumare! GuruGuru Onsen
Atsumare! GuruGuru Onsen BB
Atsumare! Power Pro Kun no DS Koushien
Attack Animal Gakuen
Attack of the Killer Demos
Attack of the Killer Tomatoes
Attack of the Movies 3D
Attack of the Mutant Penguins
Attack of the Saucerman!
Attack of the Timelord!
Attack on Titan
Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains
AubirdForce
AubirdForce After
Audio Hero
Aura Battler Dunbine
Aurora Quest: Otaku no Seiza in Another World
Austin Mini Racing
Austin Powers Pinball
Austin Powers: Oh, Behave!
Austin Powers: Welcome to my Underground Lair!
Australian Rugby League
Auto Crusher Palladium
Auto Destruct
Auto Modellista
Auto Racing
AutoBahn Tokio
Autobahn Polizei
Autobahn Raser IV
Autobahn Raser: Das Spiel zum Film
Automobili Lamborghini
Avalon Code
Avatar - The Last Airbender: Into the Inferno
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Ayrton Senna Personal Talk: Message for the Future

Pretty much the title, wanna take the missus to a good restaurant and I have always loved Food Fantasy (the name before Harvest Buffet). I have checked the website and it says it is closed but that was back in March at the height of the pandemic. Does anyone know if it is re-opened with social distance rules in place?

I’ve been a firm believer that time in the market beats day trading and other get rick quick schemes; that said, when markets are broken, decisive action is required. Action is now required. Markets are currently priced for perfection and there are a lot signals suggesting that we are due for a significant mean reversion. Think 50%+ correction.
For starters, the Shiller PE Ratio is at 35.66 which was only surpassed once previously in December 1999 when it hit 44. The Nasdaq lost 80% and the S&P was cut in almost ½ during the ensuring brutal bear market. Secondly, S&P price to sales is currently at 2.87 – an all-time high. Thirdly, S&P dividend yield is a puny 1.49%, just a tad bit above the all-time low set in 2000 at 1.11%. Fourthly, the Buffet indicator – the total market cap divided by GDP is at 190%! Buffet said anything above 100% means the market is overvalued. Fifthly, the ratio of margin debt to GDP is at an all-time high. That’s right, people are using max leverage to participate in this circus. I could go on, but you get the point.
What makes this particular bull-market dangerous is that the retail crowd is pouring in at record numbers. They are engaging in casino like behaviour – OTM option calls on meme stocks, yolo trades on companies with no earnings, buying shitcoins with the hope of flipping it to another fool etc etc. This should sound alarm bells for any serious investor.
Almost all bubbles end with craziness from the masses and I think there is sufficient evidence of that today. SPACs, garbage IPOs, Gamestop, Tesla, FAANG, pot stocks (again), real-estate, crypto currencies are just some recent examples of the retail crowd collectively losing their minds in the hopes of reaching financial nirvana. I’ve seen this story before, most recently in 1999/2000 when the retail crowd piled into tech stocks and exchanged stock tips on Yahoo message boards (the original WSB forum). Most of the stocks they traded lost 90-100%. Remember Puma Technologies or JDS Uniphase?
I know what you’re thinking – it’s impossible to time the market and most who have tried have failed. I get it. Time in the market trumps timing the market. It’s what makes my decision and even writing this so difficult. But I cannot, in good faith, buy equities and even bonds when the market has become manic and the odds of a negative return 10 years from now are almost guaranteed. Passive investors will not be immune. This is one of those rare events in one’s investing career where decisive action is required to avoid permanent capital losses or a very long winded mean reversion period. As such, I will be going mostly cash. The option value of cash has never been higher and great opportunities will await those with patience.
Good luck fellow PFC members.