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Building up Mythic Heroes

Good Evening Everyone, It's your boy u/StryderInAction back again with those AR write ups. This was originally going to be a comment on u/promisemeonething and LevinSety's video on Mythic Tier List (Great video, highly recommended as a watch) Link is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_06EYBnaUw&feature=youtu.be
But I decided to share my thoughts with the greater community as a resource for newer players wanting to build Mythics for their AR team comps and the like. The way I'm going to break down this tier list is to suggest a build and suggest what kind of team comp it would work best on as well as general comments on the charecters playstyle.
tl;dr (my thoughts on the video as well) I am aware that some Mythics are better than others however, it's my opinion that even the worst Mythic is alright and a team can be built to Highlight their strengths.
As a general rule of thumb, I will be doing practical builds, I'm not gonna make a support unit more combat focused, I'm simply attempting to capitalize on a units strength, any of the skills can be swapped around in their respective columns to achieve a desired result for a specific unit
*PRW refers to their Personal Weapon, PRS refers to a Personal Skill

Light

Peony
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW PRS Moonbow HP+4 Spd+2 Wings of Mercy Fortify Res 4 Chill Atk
Peony is a Dancer which automatically makes her an amazing addition to any offense team, basically you are trying to get her to help out where she can, her cardinal direction buffs are great for buffing offenses in a way that can't be taken away and her guidance dance is super useful in the most unexpected of situations, you really don't need to deviate that greatly from her Base Kit. I use HP+4 Spd+2 as a way of buffing her Spd preventing her from being doubled in case she needs to take a hit to secure a pot or something and WoM for those clutch (and totally 100% of the time calculated) saves. She really fits into any team comp so I'm not gonna bother mentioning strats she works well in because she works well in all of them.
​
Eir
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Smite/Repo Moonbow Fury 3/4 Desperation Sparkling Boost Swift Sparrow 2
Pumpkin-a-Box+ Smite/Repo Moonbow Fury3/4 or Swift Sparrow 2/3 Disarm Trap Savage Blow Savage Blow
Courtly Fan+ Smite/Repo Moonbow Sturdy Impact Windsweep Savage Blow Savage Blow
Temari+ Smite/Repo Iceberg Fury 3/4 Sabotage Def/Res Def/Res Rein Savage Blow
Temari+ Smite/Repo Iceberg Fortress Def/Res Sabotage or Link Skill or Mystic Boost Sparkling Boost / Hone, Goad, Ward, or Drive Skill Phantom Res/ Fotress Def Res 2
Eir is a really cool unit thanks to her flier mobility/choice of weapon/ and skill inheritance options. Disarm Trap is the name of the game here, removing a 50/50 in AR is a huge deal that opens up more strategies for you to exploit your enemy. Because of this, Eirforce is a cool Galeforce strategy you can pull off thanks to her low HP and good offensive spread (Luna FE's Eirforce Showcase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxevd-3CDMY). Eir can use an identical build to simply pull off some hit and run shenanigans if Galeforce is a too expensive for your liking. She also works great as a spectrum debuffer with Temari+ as she kills offensive stats on Defense Teams and then with a Sabotage skill, your choice of physical or Melee Damage thanks to her high Res.
​
Freyja
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo/Smite Luna Atk/Spd Solo 4 or Swift Sparrow 2/3 PRS Pulse Smoke Atk/Spd Solo, Spd/Res Solo
PRW Repo/Smite Galeforce Heavy Blade 3/4 PRS Atk/Spd/Pulse Smoke Quickened Pulse
Freyja is good with beast team comps, with units Like Tibarn, Lethe, Reyson, This makes her a really cool addition to those beast Galeforce team comps. thanks to her cav mobility, she is an excellent initiator for people who have their traps at a distance from their teams, she initiates, thanks to her Damage Redution, she is difficult to kill, she debuffs the enemy, and best case scnenario procs Galeforce and moves again and with some Wings of mercy Shenanigans, you can probably go for the sweep. Another route to take is the clean up crew, thanks to her PRFs she is a highly offensive and defensive unit, she can take a hit and can often kill on retaliation making her a great unit when pulling double bait strats and to sweep after your tank does all the heavy lifting. Overall you want to build her to be able to kill units, whether that's initiating of finishing off is up to you.
​
Mila
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
Lightning Breath Smite/Repo Bonfire Fortress Def/Res Chill Def Mila's Turnwheel Fortress Def
Nurturing Breath Smite/Repo Moonbow Fortress Def/Res Sabotage Atk/Def/Spd Mila's Turnwheel HP+4 Def+2
Isolation.... it's pretty great, but now we have counter play around it, not everyone has it though so she is still a really great unit to have especially considering she beats most dancers and staff units in the defense department, and the ones that she does not isolate can be put in a position where they are thanks to Sabotage and Ploy Skills that Mila runs very well thanks to her high Res. Mila is great at halting restore traps and shutting down the movement of mage nuke teams that rely on a dancer for their nukes mobility. Her high bulk makes it difficult for her to be killed in one round without effective damage and if you use her PRW, she won't counter-attack making sure WoM traps don't proc. Overall a good support unit to counter dancer heavy team comps. This doesn't bring up her Spectrum Stat buff or the fact that she grans another turn for actions in AR

Dark

Bramimond
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo Luna Sturdy Impact Lull Atk/Res PRS Hardy Bearing
PRW Repo Luna Atk/Def Push 4 Wings of Mercy PRS Sturdy Blow/Quickened Pulse
Bramimond, fills the role of a nuke for AR-D, and a good one at what he does, he punishes you for building a good offensive unit. His weapon shuts down a anyone who is faster than 35 and stronger than 50 which is every speed tank in the game. His personal skill kills a units ability to buff themselves his base kit accomplishes everything that he is trying to do. He works really well in Infantry Pulse comps, his status as a mythic let's him easily benefit from a High HP front-liner with the skill and a high HP dancer. good color coverage is the key to making him work. he suffers against High res units and Raven-esque units. While tanking him is difficult, he suffers when initiated on so some level of Def stacking is appreciated on him as his Res is alright
​
Triandra
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW PRS Moonbow Atk/Spd Push 4 WoM Spd/Res Rein Guidance
PRW PRS Glimmer Fury 3/4 Aerobatics Drive Skills Ground Orders
Dancers are going to have very similar descriptions and Triandra is a dancer Mythic (at some point we are just going to build teams that are just Mythics which I think is dumb and ruins the point of FEH but that's another conversation) you want to use Triandra to shuffle your units properly in a rally or restore trap. It should be noted because of her 2 range and High Atk and Spd, she is very easy to bait, however her dance spreads the guard effect all over the enemy neutering special spammers that rely on their special for health effectively "taken care of" overall she is a dancer, you have a lot of freedom to work with and she fits into many team comps.
​
Yune
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo Mooonbow Fury 3/4 WoM PRS Death Blow
PRW Repo Glacies Mirror Impact Sabotage Attack PRS Mystic Boost
PRW Repo Iceberg Sturdy Impact Feint Skills PRS Aerobatics
Yune, Despite being a Spd Mythic like Triandra and having lower attack, Yune should be built more offensively oriented, Thanks to her flier status, Chaos Named (Her PRS) and Her Excellent Res she is almost guranteed to double. Building Her Defense to survive physical threats will make her that much more successful on AR-D. She works really well as a rally trap rally bot as her PRW allows her to use Feint (in 2020 ammirite) skills to guarantee the debuff on the enemy to guarantee her double making her a very nice compliment to any cav-line or flier-ball team.
​
Hel
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo Luna Distant Counter Guard Bearing PRS Swift Stance
PRW Repo Miracle DC Guard Bearing PRS Mystic Boost
PRW Repo Galeforce Swift Sparrow 3 WoM PRS Heavy Blade
Another Green Flier.... well an axe flier with a great offensive stat spread, while build 3 works beyond AR-D it's best used in a flier ball setting specifically. The other 2 builds are for making Hel a front liner on a general Defense Team. through minimal Def and Res stacking, She can be very difficult for a unit to one round and much less to do so without taking much damage thanks to her adaptive damage. Overall a really good budget Front-line tank if you need her.
​
Sothis
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo PRS Swift Sparrow 3 Null FU Times Pulse Swift Sparrow 2
PRW Repo PRS Sturdy Impact Wrath Times Pulse Death Blow
PRW Repo PRS Bracing Stance 3 Wrath/Null FU/Null C Times Pulse Kestral Stance
Pale Breath+ Repo PRS Atk/Def or Atk/Res Bond 3/4 Guard Times Pulse or Pulse Smoke Mirror Stance
Dark Breath+ Repo PRS Atk/Def or Atk/Res Bond 3/4 Guard Times Pulse or Smoke Skill Atk/Def or Atk/Res Bond 3/4
Sothis.... She is in an unfortunate position where she is a very honest unit, She is a standard stat ball that Dragon Infantry units are known for, She already very quickly charges her very strong special so with minimal investment she can be a good Hardy Bearing User to ensure the kill on vantage users and B!Ikes. She has a DC Prf with adaptive damage for 2 range units making her a great "check unit" and Finally she has no Dragon weakness, the primary issue is that she is just that, a standard infantry unit who can't use any of the "Cheating" Infantry skills. Building her as a Defensive Wall that is dangerous to initiate on is her best build imo, She has very reasonable bulk and an excellent Atk and Speed spread to boot, she does really well in Infantry Pulse compositions as she easily gets pulsed and has a dangerous Special that can be taken advantage of. Using Guard and Pale Breath is a good way to ensure Sothis's survival as a front-line tank (credit to u/hcw731) and can deny enemy healing/damage/Galeforce specials making first time engagements against your team very difficult. A follow-up Wings of Mercy Nuke can also be a good option if you have the ability to charge her special earlier than usual as this allows her to debuff the enemy team to allow your units to finish off weakened units.
​

Astra

Reginn
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Repo/Smite PRS Swift Sparrow 3 Lull Spd/Def Panic Smoke Swift Sparrow 2
PRW Repo/Smite Galeforce Swift Sparrow 3 Lull Spd/Def Spd or Atk Smoke Heavy Blade
PRW Repo Smite Galeforce Fury 3/4 or Swift Sparrow Escape Route Panic or Atk or Spd Smoke Heavy Blade
Reginn, Similar to Freyja but has a lot of utility thanks to the Canto skill built into her weapon. Reginn is great at sniping units thanks to canto letting her retreat and is a pretty good at hit and run strategies. One of my favorite newer uses for her is the Escape Route and WoM combo (A lot safer to pull off if you have a Rafiel or Velouria Supporting her). This allows Reginn to initiate get hit and get into WoM range thanks to her low HP, her ally with WoM swoops in with another kill also trigger galeforce. Reginn retreats to a unit in the back line (These roles can be easily flipped if you feel it necessary). I mean plus she let's you get an extra slot in AR.... so yeah.
​
Altina
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Smite/Repo PRS PRS Vantage Joint Drive Atk/Res Deflect Magic or Brazen
PRS Repo/Smite Galeforce Fury 3/4 or Heavy Blade WoM/ Escape Route Smoke/Spur Skill Quickened Pulse
Armor Smasher+ Repo/ Smite PRS Fortress Def/Res 4 or Fury 3/4 Quick Riposte Drive or Hone Skill Fortress Def/Res 2
Altina is one of my favorite designed Mythics, that aside, she comes with naturally good kill power and this let's her run Vantage sweep very well, but we already knew that. I've found her to be a reliable Galeforce unit when paired with Velouria. I Smite Altina wherever I need her, thanks to Velouria CD and Quickened Pulse she procs Galeforce and from there you can hit and run or you can dedicate yourself to the sweep. I've seen many people talk that Altina loses to Thasir and I feel like these are the same people who Smite their tank onto a bolt trap (I jest) however, just like with any Defense, your offense needs to be focused on accomplishing the mission, with some support (or just Deflect Magic) Altina can easily take care of most green threats. She may not be a main carry but she serves her purpose quite well. Altina can also be used a Chill/Shrine Soak if you so desire it and are confident in your AR carry. Giving her a refined Armor Smasher to absorb Def/Res Chills is a valid option as her bulk is quite respectable (credit to u/Dxiled)
​
Naga
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRF or Lightning Breath +Ref Smite/Repo Moonbow Fury 3/4 or Life and Death 3/4 Chill or Link Skill PRS Chill Skill or Drive Skill or Visible Stat increasing skill
Naga, Similar to Sothis, meant to be a stat ball to absorb Chills and the like, She is handy for killing Dumas and is liability when attacked by Thasir. Luckily she has plenty of stats and if focused on, she can absorb a Chill from your main Tank (Especially Atk/Spd/Def) Giving Her a Link Skill let's her become a good Smite bot and Buff Bot, just watch out for Panic.
Plumeria
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW PRS Glacies/Iceberg Atk/Res Push or Fury Sabotage Spd or Wings of Mercy Atk/Res Rein Mirror Stance
Another Red unit, can you guess what we're trying to tank? Back to the point of a dancer, see Peony they serve almost identical purposes where Peony's Cardinal Buff is substituted with Plumeria's Spectrum Buff and Enemy Debuff. fine addition to any team, I personally always use my extra slot with Reginn for her
​

Anima

Duma
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRW Pivot Moonbow/Luna Def/Res Bond Bold Fighter PRS Def/Res Bond
Lightning Breath+ Pivot Moonbow Def/Res Bond Vengeful Fighter PRS Fierce Stance
PRW Pivot MoonBowor Escutcheon Atk/Res or Atk/Def Bond Wings of Mercy PRS Death Blow
Duma, He's a walking catapult, him sniping structures is a huge boon for some Defense teams which is why you shouldn't want to corner trap him (you usually a Fortress which is unbreakable and escape ladder which is also unbreakable). He is a great surprise nuke and overall a bulky unit, however he suffers by being a dragon AND armored.Keeping him in your back lines and capitalizing on his Atk, Def, and Res are your best bets, a low CD special works great on him as he already hits very hard so focusing on a single finishing blow is the way to go in my opinion and Wings of Mercy can definitely make that happen.
​
Thasir
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRF Repo Moonbow Flashing Blade 4 PRS Panic Smoke or Pulse Smoke Swift Sparrow 2
PRF Repo Luna Swift Sparrow 3 PRS Times Pulse Flashing Blade 3
She is Anima Bramimond... moving on... no seriously she's a nuclear bomb and kills Dragons with extreme prejudice. She works great on Infantry Pulse Teams, her Defense Mythic Buff is nice, but not honestly more helpful than literally any other stat. Give her a way to pre-charge her special and de-buff your Attacker and she will kill everything, or at least whatever she initiates on.
​
Mirabilis
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRF PRS Moonbow/Iceberg Blow or Impact Skill Aerobatics or Sabotage or Wings of Mercy Ground or Air Orders or Odd Tempest Chill Skill or Movement Skill
PRF PRS Moonbow/Iceberg Fortress Def Res Sabotage or Chill or Wings of Mercy Ward/Goad/Joint Drive Skill Chill Skills or Ground/AirOrders
De-buff Stacking Dancer. The key word is dancer. She fits into any team comp though it can be argued she works best on Flier balls by being a flier. Once again, fits into a lot of team comps
Lif
Wpn Assist Special A B C S
PRF/Carrot Cudgel/Slaying Edge Repo/Harsh Command+ PRS Distant Counter PRS Times Pulse Mirror Stance
Wo Dao or Slaying Edge Harsh Command+ PRS or Galeforce Sturdy Impact or Heavy Blade 3/4 Wings of Mercy Times Pulse Quickened Pulse
PRF Repo Galeforce Heavy Blade 3 or 4 Wings of Mercy Times Pulse Quickened Pulse or Death Blow
Lif... a one range nuke. he's pretty great... in literally any other gamemode that is not Aether Raids, he is literally identical to Itsuki minus the blessing. I jest, just ignore his Prf as it's reprecussions are very steep if you don't know what you're doing. The best way to utilize him is to capitalize on his insane strength stat of 38 (42 with superboon) because of his strength, he can one shot or weaken a great deal of tanks that he faces with a pre-charged Special (Or Galeforce if you're like me and choking on feathers and Cordeilas). Plus if you are a fan of his PRW, his Repercussion damage can be used to trigger other units' skills. I personally use him in my rally trap in a mixed Flying and Infantry Team, I bait them to bait my B!Dimitri (very 4D Chess, I know) and then using Ground Orders, Lif rallies, gets danced, sweeps in and kills their (most of the time) Green tank and this lets B!Dimitri attack squishy support units. Lesson is, yes he has the bulk to be a tank, but he would rather be a nuke.

Outro

Wow that was long and it has been.... 1 week... since I started writing this, I'll edit this as I re-read it but now I want to focus on my University studies. I hope this gives people who are new a general idea of what to do with their mythic heroes. I am of the philosophy they are all at the very least, usable if not a bit situational.
Hopefully you found this helpful and [UNTIL NEXT TIME!](https://youtu.be/9czlM-c0v8w?t=204) *credit to ZeShado*
EDIT: Forgot Duma, oops, added Temari Build for Eir. Thank you u/skullkid2424
EDIT2: Updated some new builds and recommended skills submitted from the community, thank you u/hcw731 u/NotSuluX and u/Dxiled
submitted by StryderInAction to OrderOfHeroes [link] [comments]

/r/thetagang needs a FAQ/wiki so I wrote one

EDIT: Wiki now exists and has more info not in this post.

Overview

What is this place? What is theta gang?

/thetagang is a sub for traders who are interested in selling options.

An option? What's that?

Options are derivative financial instruments, which means they derive their value from an underlying, such a stock or commodity. Options are a contract in which the buyer has the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying at an agreed upon price on or by a certain date.
All options have an expiration date after which they stop trading. Because they eventually expire they are also wasting assets, which means they lose extrinsic value as time passes. This is where theta gang comes in.

Uh huh... I don't really understand anything you just said, but I'm curious, why would anyone want to trade options?

There are two main reason why someone would want to trade options: hedging and speculation.
Consider an investor who buys a stock but is worried about a price decline. They can purchase options (put contracts) to protect themselves if the stock's price were to fall. And if they think a stock is overvalued and want to short it, they can purchase options (call contracts) to protect them should the price rise. In both cases the investor is hedging their trade because they are trying to profit from the stock and not the options.
The other reason is speculation. Options allow someone to make a directional bet on a stock without buying or selling the actual stock (the underlying).

Why would someone bother with trading options when they can just trade the underlying?

Leverage. Equity option contracts are standardized and each contract (also called a "lot") is for 100 shares of the underlying. It's a way to have exposure to the underlying without needing the capital to buy or sell 100 shares for each contract. In other words a smaller amount of money controls a higher valued asset.
Options allow a buyer to make amazing profits. If a trade goes incredibly well, they could see profits anywhere from 100% to 10,000% (a few are even lucky enough to get 100,000%). And despite being leveraged the most amount of money they can lose is what they paid to buy the options. This is known as the premium and is paid to the seller.
The option buyer's losses are limited to the premium and their profits are potentially unlimited, whereas for the seller the losses are potentially unlimited and the profits are limited to the premium.

WHAT?!? Why on Earth would anyone sell options with a payout like that? Especially when you could become rich so easily?

If only it were that simple.
The reality is most options expire worthless. If you buy options not only do you have to get the directional bet right, but you have to get the timing right as well.
If you buy a stock and it goes nowhere for a while and then suddenly takes off in price, you make money from this trade. Not necessarily for options. They eventually expire and if the stock soars after the option expires, tough luck. You get nothing and lose all your money.
All of the incredible gains you see with options happen because the underlying made a huge move in a relatively short period. In other words, you have to take an immense amount of risk to make a boatload of money. It's far more likely that the options expire worthless and you lose everything.
And if getting the direction and timing right wasn't hard enough, it gets even worse. Options are priced to lose. Recall that options are a wasting asset. An option slowly loses extrinsic value as time passes. This is referred to as theta decay. If the underlying doesn't move in price fast enough (in the right direction, of course) to offset the loss in theta, you lose money.
This leads to an interesting outcome: an options buyer can be right and still lose money, and an options seller can be wrong and still make money.

WHAT?!?! How can someone be wrong in a trade and still make money?

The value an option has can be split into two parts: intrinsic and extrinsic.
Remember how options have an agreed upon price to trade the underlying at? That's called the strike price. As an example, if a call option has a strike of $10, and the stock is trading at $10.50, the option has $0.50 of intrinsic value.
The extrinsic value is also known as the time value of an option. It's the risk premium the seller receives for taking on the risk of selling options. Using the same example as earlier, if the option is trading for $1.10, the extrinsic value is $0.60.
The intrinsic and extrinsic value combined are the option's premium, and the seller receives this premium in full. So if at the date of the option's expiration the stock is trading at $10.70, the option is worth $0.70. The seller's $0.40 profit is the buyer's loss. And if the underlying is at $10 or less on expiration? It expires worthless and the buyer loses 100%.

This sounds too good to be true. If most options expire worthless why doesn't everyone sell options and get rich?

If only it were that simple.
It's true options are priced to lose and that most expire worthless. What is a wasting asset for the buyer is a wasting liability for the seller. However, it's still a liability and sometimes that liability can end up being a real loser.
It's not just a matter of a win/loss ratio. The magnitude of the wins vs. losses must be considered. The most an option seller can make is the premium, but they can lose far more than that if the underlying moves against them. It's possible for a seller's loss to be multiples of the premium they received for selling an option. If an option seller is really unfortunate, they can experience a loss on a single trade that wipes out months of profits.
There's no easy money to be made trading options.

The Greeks

Let's pretend that I know what options are. How do the Greeks apply to option sellers?

Delta

Delta has multiple meanings:
  1. How much the option's price changes relative to a change in the underlying's price.
  2. The option's equivalent of a position in the underlying (a directional bet).
  3. The probability the option expires in-the-money.
Definition #2 is important to understand when making delta neutral bets (discussed later). These profit from a decrease in volatility along with collecting theta. It's possible to construct a trade where a movement in the underlying does not change the position's value (or by much).
Definition #3 is an approximation. Many option sellers like to sell out-of-the-money options with a delta of 0.30, which means they have an approximately 30% chance of expiring ITM.

Gamma

Delta is not a constant. An option's delta changes as the underlying's price changes. Gamma measures how much delta changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. Option buyers have positive gamma, whereas sellers have negative gamma.
Long (positive) gamma works in favor of the buyer. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and profits accelerate. As the underlying moves further out-of-the-money, gamma decreases delta and losses decelerate.
Short (negative) gamma works against the seller. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and losses accelerate. As the underlying moves further OTM, gamma decreases delta and profits decelerate.
Gamma is bad news for sellers. Theta gang has always been at war with gamma gang. Gamma is also the reason that delta hedging is so difficult when it comes to being delta neutral.

Theta

Beloved theta. The namesake of /thetagang. It's why we're here all here and why you're reading this.
Theta represents the time value of an option. It's the extrinsic value of an option, and as each day ticks away the time value decreases a little. That amount is determined by theta. Theta decay is nonlinear and accelerates as expiration approaches.
The goal of an option seller is to profit from collecting theta. One could sell an option that's ITM and profit from the underlying moving OTM, but that's not a theta bet, that's a directional bet. ITM options also have less time value than at-the-money options. ATM options have the most time value and so the most theta to collect, but are at a greater risk of expiring ITM compared to OTM options.
The more days to expiration an option has the slower the theta decay. 30-45 DTE is a very popular period to sell. Others prefer weeklies.

Vega

Vega measures how much an option's price changes relative to a change in implied volatility.
The IV of an option is the market's estimate of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. The higher the IV the greater the time value of an option, which means options with higher IVs are more expensive.
Option buyers want to buy when volatility is low because options are cheaper. Sellers want to sell when volatility is high because options are more expensive.
The best time to sell options is during the gut-wrenching periods when no one wants to sell because volatility is so high (such as the March 2020 crash). Options become extremely expensive and there are juicy premiums to collect. Look for large spikes in IV.

Vomma

Vomma (or volga) is a much lesser known Greek. It measures how much an option's vega changes as the implied volatility changes.
Out-of-the-money options have the most vomma. This detail will be discussed later in a horror story of option selling gone wrong.

Rho

Rho measures how much an option's price changes as interest rate changes.
No one cares about rho anymore thanks to interest rates being stuck at rock bottom for over a decade.

Volatility

What are some basic details about volatility that are important to know?

Both option buyers and sellers care about volatility (at least they should). Buyers want to purchase when IV is low and sellers want to sell when IV is high.
An option's IV in isolation does not actually tell you if IV is high or low. It must be compared to the historical IV for that option. Two popular methods are IV rank and IV percentile.
For example, if options on XYZ have an IV of 35% and options on ABC have an IV of 45%, on the surface ABC has higher IV. But if XYZ has an IV rank of 75% and ABC only 40%, XYZ's IV is actually higher relative to its historical IV and may be better suited for selling.
There are different ways of measuring volatility and it's important to not mix them up:

What is volatility skew?

To understand what volatility skew is we have to go back to the 1970s.
You may have heard of a theoretical options pricing model called the Black-Scholes or Black-Scholes-Merton model. This model was published in 1973 and became very popular. It was widely adopted in the options market.
The original Black-Scholes model predicts that the IV curve is flat among the various strike prices with the same expiration. It didn't matter if the strike price was OTM, ATM, or ITM, they all had the same IV.
IV stayed this way until the stock market crash of 1987, where the DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single day. This single event changed the options market forever. The IV curve was no longer flat but instead demonstrated a volatility smile (conceptual graph). Strike prices further from ATM started trading at higher IVs.
The crash was a gut punch to investors that taught them extreme moves in markets were more common than you would expect, and options started being priced accordingly. But the volatility smile is not symmetrical, it's actually skewed.
OTM puts have a higher IV than OTM calls. This is due to markets falling much faster than they rise (they take the escalator up and the elevator down). This causes more demand for OTM puts to protect long portfolio positions. Most investors are long the market, and some will sell covered calls which increases the supply for OTM calls.
Note that this is true for equity markets. Commodity markets behave differently. Normally there is a floor in commodity prices (although for commodities with storage or delivery constraints, as we learned in April 2020 they can dip below zero) and IV is higher for OTM calls compared to puts, because commodities can suddenly spike in price due to supply side shocks.
In equity markets IV is inversely correlated with price, that is, IV rises when prices fall (reverse or negative skew). This isn't necessarily true for commodities where rising prices can mean an increase in IV (forward or positive skew).

The story of James "Rogue Wave" Cordier of OptionSellers.com: A tragic lesson in how not to sell options

James Cordier is a former money manager who has the dubious honor of not only losing all the money of his clients by selling options, but even leaving them with a debt because the losses were so staggering.
James was a proponent of selling options and had even written a book about it. He had a now defunct website, OptionSellers.com, which targeted individuals with a high net worth. His strategy was simple: he was selling naked options on crude oil and natural gas. For years he made he made his clients plenty of money. Things were great. Until they weren't... and the results were catastrophic. His clients lost everything and even owed money to their broker, INTL FCStone. Where did James go so wrong?
James was selling naked strangles on natural gas and crude oil. In November 2018, both markets moved against him, but the real losses came from his naked natgas calls. He sent an email with the subject line "Catastrophic Loss Event" to his clients on November 15th, dropping the bombshell that not only was all their money gone, but they may be facing a negative balance.
If you look at a chart of natgas you can see why his accounts blew up. Natgas experienced a huge spike in November and his broker liquidated their positions at an absolutely massive loss.
What mistakes did he make and what can we learn from them?
1. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller
Part of his strategy involved selling deep OTM naked calls on natgas (call leg of short strangles). Deep OTM options typically don't sell for very much, so in order to collect more money you sell a bunch of them to make it worth the trade.
This is a terrible idea and no one should ever sell a bunch of deep OTM naked options. It can work great for years, until one day it blows up your account. In order to collect a decent premium you have to overleverage yourself. This is extremely risky and you will eventually experience a major loss one day. The odds are not in your favor.
The underlying does not even need to cross the strike price for you to lose money. The underlying's price simply needs to move significantly closer to the strike price and you'll be deep in the red. This is made even worse if volatility spikes, which increases the option's price and your losses (discussed in detail in the next point).
Notice what happened the following months: natgas prices crashed back to what they were before the spike. Had James not overleveraged his positions, he could've ridden the losses out to a profit. In fact, all those options probably would've expired worthless.
There is another reason not to sell deep OTM naked options. Imagine you're a speculator with a small account (e.g., /wallstreetbets). They want to trade but they can't afford to buy ATM or slightly OTM options, so what do they do? Buy deep OTM options, bidding the price up. When a market moves big and the small-time speculators want to trade it, all they can afford are the cheap options, which are deep OTM. This is bad news when you're short them.
2. Not understanding the relationship between price and volatility
Remember how for commodities volatility can be positively correlated with price? Natgas is one of them, and when the price spiked so did volatility. James did not understand the consequences of this.
When you are short options, you have negative vega. As the price spiked so did volatility, and the short vega position piled up his losses in addition to being short delta.
But vega is not a constant. We finally get to discuss vomma now. Vomma measures how much an option's vega changes as IV changes. In other words, as IV increases, so does vega thanks to vomma. When you're short vega and vomma, this is bad news.
Remember which options have the highest vomma? That's right, OTM. So as IV increased, not only did his losses increase due to rising IV, but vega itself started increasing thanks to vomma, further accelerating his losses.
He got wrecked four different ways: being on the wrong side of delta, gamma adding to delta, being on the wrong side of vega, and vomma adding to vega.
3. A total absence of risk management
Risk management is essential when it comes to trading, and selling options is no exception. Selling naked options can expose you to extreme risks, and to ignore it is simply reckless. It's more important to avoid a huge loss than to make a huge profit, because all it takes is one big loss on a trade to make recovering from it impossible, ending your career in theta gang.
Tail risk is a very real concern in trading, and those "rare" events actually happen more frequently than traders expect (fat tails). Look at a price chart of natgas over the past twenty years. You can see random spikes sprinkled throughout the chart. James never stopped to think, what would happen to the value of my positions if natgas were to suddenly spike in price, which I know has happened in the past, and will happen again someday? How could I protect myself against this scenario?
It's pretty obvious that if a one-day or even few weeks move manages to blow up your account and completely undo years of profits, you have zero risk management in place. This stems from not understanding how the natgas market works, and trading it with no regard to risk.
Selling naked calls on natgas is a terrible strategy because natgas can have sudden price spikes, and IV will spike with it. A much better strategy would've been selling a call backspread. You sell an ATM or OTM call, and you buy two or more calls that are further OTM. That way if natgas did spike your losses are limited, and you might even turn a profit on the spike.
Spend the time necessary to learn about the underlying. And don't neglect risk management. If you're going to sell options, you absolutely must understand how the underlying behaves and its relationship with volatility, otherwise you cannot have proper risk controls in place.

Miscellaneous

What are some popular option selling strategies?

The most popular would be covered calls and cash secured puts.
CCs involve selling OTM calls on a stock you own. The short call position is covered by owning the underlying, hence the name (opposite of naked). A single equity options contract is for 100 shares, so an investor sells one call for every 100 shares they own. If the stock price rises beyond the strike price, the seller keeps the premium, but the options will get exercised and the shares called away. They sell them at the strike price, missing out on the extra gains beyond the strike. The seller still makes money on the sale, just not as much as they would have if they sold them at market price. If the stock grinds sideways, the options expire worthless. And if the stock falls in price, the options will also expire worthless, but the seller will lose money on their long stock position. Chances are they will lose more money than the premium they collected from selling the CCs.
A CSP is a naked put that's sold either ATM or OTM with enough money in the account to cover the stock purchase if the option gets exercised. If the stock grinds sideways or rises in price, the puts expire worthless. However, if the stock falls in price the options will get exercised, and the seller will be forced to buy the stock from the options buyer at the strike price, most likely suffering a loss greater than the premium they received.
A CC has the same downside risk as a naked put. If the stock declines in either scenario the investor risks losing far more money than the premium received. If you are comfortable with the risk of selling CCs you should also be comfortable with the risk of selling CSPs. However, you can lose more money in the CSP scenario if you buy back the put before expiration if IV rises enough, vs. holding it to expiration.
Selling a CSP always means selling a naked put. It is not a covered put because you have cash to buy the stock. Whether or not you have enough money in the account to buy the shares at the strike price is irrelevant. A CP means you are also short the underlying, hence it is covered. It's the same idea as a CC, except it has unlimited risk due to there being no theoretical limit the price the stock could increase to, whereas a long stock position can't go below zero (not a guarantee for certain commodities).
Other common strategies are wheeling and volatility crush.
The wheel is similar to selling a strangle but not quite the same. You sell CSPs on a stock you wouldn't be opposed to owning, and in the unfortunate case of being assigned, you then sell CCs to recoup your losses. If you've been selling CSPs for a while you may still be net up when assigned, but if the stock craters you're looking at a significant loss. You hope the stock slowly climbs while selling CCs, but if the stock suddenly spikes your shares may get called away and you miss out on recovering your losses on the upside.
There are variations to the wheel before being assigned. A jade lizard is selling an OTM call spread where the max loss on it is less than the premium collected from selling the CSP. Ideally the stock will trade in between the short put and call strikes and all options expire worthless. You can also trade a ratio put spread instead of just a put.
The volatility crush trade is a delta neutral strategy. It profits not from a change in the underlying's price, but from IV decreasing. It's very popular right before earnings. IV on a stock can spike just before an earnings report is released due to uncertainty (vol rush). Unless you have insider information, you can only guess what the results will be. After the report is released, IV crashes because the uncertainty is gone (vol crush). Everyone knows the results.
You find a company who's about to report earnings and the IV on their options has spiked. You then sell expensive ATM calls, and because ATM options have a delta of about 0.5 you buy 50 shares for every call sold. Your net delta is zero (delta neutral) because you've offset the negative delta from the short call position by buying shares which gives you positive delta. By hedging your delta you've eliminated directional risk. After earnings are released, IV craters and you buy back the options at a cheaper price and sell your shares.
In theory this sounds like an easy way to profit. In reality it's not due to our archnemesis gamma gang. Delta is not a constant and as the underlying's price changes so does delta. If the stock soars after earnings, the call option's delta will increase and your delta exposure will become increasingly negative as the stock rises in price. If the stock tanks, your delta exposure will become increasing positive as the stock falls in price. In either scenario you start losing money from your changing delta position, and the amount you make from IV decreasing must be greater, otherwise you lose money overall on the trade.
You can try to nudge your delta in a direction to hedge against this. If you're bullish on the stock you can overweight your exposure and buy more shares so that you have a positive delta. If you're bearish you can underweight your exposure and buy fewer shares so that you have a negative delta. If you're correct, good news for you. But if you're wrong, you lose more money than if you were delta neutral.
Then you have a plethora of spread trades, such as vertical, horizontal, diagonal, and ratio, some with creative names. There are far too many to cover in this guide in detail. All of them have at least two legs (each leg is a component of the options trade) to the trade where you are both long and short options.

How does assignment work?

There are two main types of option styles: European and American. European options can be exercised only on the expiration date. American options can be exercised at any time before (and of course on) the expiration date.
When an option is exercised, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly selects a member firm that is short the option, and the firm uses an exchange-approved method to select a customer that is short the option. The OCC processes all assignments after market close, and because it processes closing buys before assignments, there is no possibility of assignment if you buy back your short position during the day's trading hours.
An option buyer can exercise their option even if it makes no sense financially and they would lose money. It's their right to do so and you are obligated to fulfill it if assigned. Even if an option expires worthless it can still be exercised. The buyer may be speculating that major news gets released after hours (some options trade until 4:15 PM ET) and when the market opens again the underlying has moved favorably and their gamble paid off. To avoid risking this scenario simply close out the day of expiration.
Only about 7% of options get exercised and the majority occur close to expiration. This is because options still have extrinsic value before they expire, and once exercised the buyer loses the extrinsic value. It makes more sense for them to sell it.
Be aware that if you are assigned you may see a large negative balance or buying power in your account. This may be because the underlying stock trade has not settled yet. It normally takes T + 2 (trade date plus two business days) to settle. Settlement means an exchange of money and securities. Payment is made from the buyer's account to the seller's, and the seller's securities are transferred to the buyer's account. The other reason would be the value of the new stock position. If you have a small account and are now long or short hundreds or thousands of shares, the market value could far exceed the cash value of your account. You'll be forced to close out by your broker. Once either the trade settles or you close out the large negative balance disappears.

What are some scenarios I can expect assignment, especially early assignment?

If an option expires ITM you can expect it to be exercised. Unless instructed otherwise, the OCC will automatically exercise any option that expires at least $0.01 ITM.
Deep ITM options about to expire are candidates for being exercised. They start behaving like the stock itself since there's zero real chance of them not expiring ITM. They have no extrinsic value and in fact may trade slightly below their intrinsic value (at a discount to parity, parity being the intrinsic value). This is because no one really has any incentive to trade the option anymore, especially when they could trade the stock instead, which has more liquidity. A market maker would agree to buy it at a discount and at the same time open a position on the stock and exercise the option, profiting from the discount arbitrage. For example, XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading at $4.95. A MM buys the call while simultaneously shorting 100 shares, exercises the option and collects the risk-free profit of $0.05:
(50 - 45) - 4.95 = 0.05
Selling spreads is a very common theta gang strategy, so let's examine the case of early assignment and assignment after expiration.
You sold a 50/55 vertical call spread for $1.40 on XYZ that's trading at $53. It expires in a few days but for whatever reason the buyer decided to exercise early and you were assigned. You're now short 100 shares at $50 while still long the 55 call. Because vertical spreads are risk defined trades, this isn't a big deal. You're still long the 55 call, so you have upside protection which will cap your losses at $360 (500-140) should the stock move past $55. You could take the risk of riding it out and hoping the stock falls or you can close out the trade, accept your losses and move on.
The other scenario is assignment at expiration. This is actually the more dangerous case of the two. Imagine the same circumstances except it's expiration day (Friday). The stock closes at $53, the short call expires ITM, and the long call expires worthless. The short call is exercised and you're assigned. Because you no longer have upside protection anymore, this is not a defined risk trade but instead undefined. You're short the stock over the weekend and no one knows what the opening price will be Monday. If major news gets published Sunday the stock could soar. Or it could crater. This is not the kind of risk theta gang likes to take. You should always close out of your short options on the day of expiration if there's a real chance of them expiring ITM, especially when your long options will expire OTM. Otherwise at that point you're now delta gang.
If both the short and long options are ITM at expiration, the most you can lose is the spread minus the premium received. You might as well close out to avoid the hassle of being assigned and exercising your long options.
The specter of early assignment gets raised quite a bit around the time dividends are paid. The scenarios are different for calls and puts.
You may have read that if the time value of an ITM call is less than the dividend, the call is at risk of being exercised early. This is not because the investor will make money from exercising. Let's illustrate with an example. To be paid a dividend you must own the stock before the ex-dividend date. Call owners do not receive dividends. If you buy the shares on or after the ex-date you won't be paid the dividend, so the call owner will exercise it the day before the ex-date.
XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading for $5.25. It's paying a $1 dividend and the ex-date is tomorrow so the buyer exercises the call. They're now long XYZ at $45. The ex-date arrives, the dividend is paid, and the stock is discounted by the amount of the dividend, and is trading at $49. They sell and wind up losing $0.25. What happened? Simply add up the numbers:
(49 - 45) + 1 - 5.25 = -0.25
Whenever you exercise an option you throw away the extrinsic value. It doesn't matter how large the dividend is, since the stock's price is discounted by it on the ex-date. This is a losing trade. The only way the trade could make money is if the stock isn't discounted by the full amount. Sometimes this happens (other news gets published) but this is nothing more than a gamble if attempted. It's not an arbitrage opportunity.
In fact, as the ex-date approaches you may see ITM call options trading at parity. This occurs because the stock's price will be discounted by the dividend, and so the option's intrinsic value will decrease as well. Buyers don't want to be left holding it going into the ex-date because they're going to lose money, so the selling pressure drives down the option's price to parity. It may even trade at a discount, presenting the earlier discount arbitrage opportunity.
If the corresponding put with the same strike price as the call is trading for a price less than the dividend minus interest, then the call would be exercised and you would be assigned early. The trader long the call would exercise their call and buy the put, since this has the effect of recreating the same trade, except they receive the dividend.
It's actually puts that offer a dividend arbitrage opportunity if the time value is less than the dividend. Using the example from earlier, a 55 put is trading at $5.25. You buy 100 shares of the stock at $50. Ex-date arrives, the stock is discounted to $49. You exercise the put, selling the stock for $55, collect the $1 dividend and profit a risk-free $0.75. Add up the numbers again:
(55 - 50) + 1 - 5.25 = 0.75
You may already be guessing what happens to ITM puts as the ex-date approaches. Their price increases due to buying pressure, since the option's intrinsic value is about to increase by the dividend's amount. Once the time value at least matches the dividend the arbitrage opportunity no longer exists.
One other scenario where you may be assigned is when the underlying is trading close to the option's strike price on expiration day. You don't know if it will expire ITM or not. This is called pin risk. What should you do if you're short? Close out. It's not worth the risk if the underlying moves adversely after market close and the options are now ITM. Just close out.

Should I close out of a position after collecting most of the premium earlier than expected?

This is a good idea. A lot of people follow a rule where if they've collected at least 50-80% of the premium they close out of the trade and move on to the next. They especially follow the rule when it happens much sooner than expected.
Collecting the last tiny bit of premium isn't worth what you're risking (a relatively large amount of money to make a small amount). You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. What will happen one day is the underlying will make a dramatic adverse move, eliminating all of your profit and even putting you at a loss. You'll be cursing yourself for being greedy and not closing out earlier.
A lot of brokers will even let you close out of a short options trade for no commission if you can buy it back for only five or ten cents.

My position moved against me. What can I do about it?

You have a few choices.
1. Close out
Close the trade. Accept your losses and move on. How do you decide if it's a good idea to close? Ask yourself, if you didn't already have this position would you do it now? Would you open the position now given the current price and market circumstances? If not, close out.
You're going to end up on the wrong side of trades sometimes. It happens to everyone. Sometimes closing out is the right idea. Other times it's not. You can't predict the future, so don't beat yourself up when you make the wrong decision. But always be mindful of risk management and keep your losses small.
2. Ride it out
It's not unusual for option prices to spike only to collapse in price later on. If you haven't overleveraged yourself you have the funds available to ride out the trade. If the answer to the earlier question about opening the trade now is yes, it's reasonable to ride it out. You might even consider selling more contracts, but remember to never overleverage.
Just make sure the HAPI (hope and pray index) isn't high, otherwise it's a sign you should close out.
3. Roll
Rolling is a good idea when you think the trade in the short term is a bad idea, but long term will make money. You close out of your existing position and open a new one. This is ideally done simultaneously so you don't trade into the position one leg at a time, risking a poorer fill on price (slippage) or only getting only a partial execution and your positions are now wrong.
Rolling up is rolling to a higher strike price. Rolling down is rolling to a lower strike price. And rolling out or forward is rolling to a later expiration date. Typically you roll out, and possibly up or down. Whatever you decide, the goal is to roll to a new position that you can sell for more than the loss on the old position. That way you can at least recover your losses, and if you're fortunate, still turn a profit.

I'm doing great! I'm winning on all my trades collecting that sweet, sweet, theta. I want to sell even MOAR!

Slow down there, speed racer.
The second worst thing that happens to new traders is they have a series of winning trades (the worst being they lose all their money). They become overconfident, think they have it all figured out, and place a trade that's way too big for their account. They of course don't realize how clueless they are, discover to their horror the trade was completely wrong, and end up digging through the remains of their now smoldering account.
You've made a bunch of winning trades. Great. Don't let it go to your head. Don't start scaling up massively simply because you've been winning lately. A better strategy is to risk a fixed percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your account on each trade. As you make more money the dollar value of each trade increases but the percentage stays the same. That way when a trade ends up being a loser, which will happen, the damage is minor and you can still recover.
Theta gang is not a get-rich-quick scheme. If you're going to commit to this you're going to be doing it long-term, which means slowly making money.

I like to sell options on stock indexes like the S&P 500. Anything I should know?

SPY is extremely popular for trading options but there is a much better alternative: SPX. Why?
If you like to trade options on other indexes (or commodities), you should consider futures options. Both futures and futures options are 1256 contracts and receive favorable tax treatment.
EDIT: Hit character limit, rest of post here
submitted by baconcodpiece to thetagang [link] [comments]

How to not get ruined with Options - Part 3a of 4 - Simple Strategies

Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the Greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
---
Ok. So I lied. This post was getting way too long, so I had to split in two (3a and 3b)
In the previous posts 1 and 2, I explained how to buy and sell options, and how their price is calculated and evolves over time depending on the share price, volatility, and days to expiration.
In this post 3a (and the next 3b), I am going to explain in more detail how and when you can use multiple contracts together to create more profitable trades in various market conditions.
Just a reminder of the building blocks:
You expect that, by expiration, the stock price will …
... go up more than the premium you paid → Buy a call
… go down more than the premium you paid → Buy a put
... not go up more than the premium you got paid → Sell a call
... not go down more than the premium you got paid → Sell a put
Buying Straight Calls:
But why would you buy calls to begin with? Why not just buy the underlying shares? Conversely, why would you buy puts? Why not just short the underlying shares?
Let’s take long shares and long calls as an example, but this applies with puts as well.
If you were to buy 100 shares of the company ABC currently trading at $20. You would have to spend $2000. Now imagine that the share price goes up to $25, you would now have $2500 worth of shares. Or a 25% profit.
If you were convinced that the price would go up, you could instead buy call options ATM or OTM. For example, an ATM call with a strike of $20 might be worth $2 per share, so $200 per contract. You buy 10 contracts for $2000, so the same cost as buying 100 shares. Except that this time, if the share price hits $25 at expiration, each contract is now worth $500, and you now have $5000, for a $3000 gain, or a 150% profit. You could even have bought an OTM call with a strike of $22.50 for a lower premium and an even higher profit.
But it is fairly obvious that this method of buying calls is a good way to lose money quickly. When you own shares, the price goes up and down, but as long as the company does not get bankrupt or never recovers, you will always have your shares. Sometimes you just have to be very patient for the shares to come back (buying an index ETF increases your chances there). But by buying $2000 worth of calls, if you are wrong on the direction, the amplitude, or the time, those options become worthless, and it’s a 100% loss, which rarely happens when you buy shares.
Now, you could buy only one contract for $200. Except for the premium that you paid, you would have a similar profit curve as buying the shares outright. You have the advantage though that if the stock price dropped to $15, instead of losing $500 by owning the shares, you would only lose the $200 you paid for the premium. However, if you lose these $200 the first month, what about the next month? Are you going to bet $200 again, and again… You can see that buying calls outright is not scalable long term. You need a very strong conviction over a specific period of time.
How to buy cheaper shares? Sell Cash Covered Put.
Let’s continue on the example above with the company ABC trading at $20. You may think that it is a bit expensive, and you consider that $18 is a more acceptable price for you to own that company.
You could sell a put ATM with a $20 strike, for $2. Your break-even point would be $18, i.e. you would start losing money if the share price dropped below $18. But also remember that if you did buy the shares outright, you would have lost more money in case of a price drop, because you did not get a premium to offset that loss. If the price stays above $20, your return for the month will be 11% ($200 / $1800).
Note that in this example, we picked the ATM strike of $20, but you could have picked a lower strike for your short put, like an OTM strike of $17.50. Sure, the premium would be lower, maybe $1 per share, but your break-even point would drop from $18 to $16.50 (only 6% return then per month, not too shabby).
The option trade will usually be written like this:
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 17.5 PUT @ 1.00
This means we sold 1 PUT on ABC, 100 shares per contract, the expiration date is July 17, 2020, and the strike is $17.5, and we sold it for $1 per share (so $100 credit minus fees).
With your $20 short put, you will get assigned the shares if the price drops below $20 and you keep it until expiration, however, you will have paid them the equivalent of $18 each (we’ll actually talk more about the assignment later). If your short put expires worthless, you keep the premium, and you may decide to redo the same trade again. The share price may have gone up so much that the new ATM strike does not make you comfortable, and that’s fine as you were not willing to spend more than $18 per share, to begin with, anyway. You will have to wait for some better conditions.
This strategy is called a cash covered put. In a taxable account, depending on your broker, you can have it on margin with no cash needed (you will need to have some other positions to provide the buying power). Beware that if you don’t have the cash to cover the shares, it is adding some leverage to your overall position. Make sure you account for all your potential risks at all times. The nice thing about this position is that as long as you are not assigned, you don’t actually need to borrow some money, it won’t cost you anything. In an IRA account, you will need to have the cash available for the assignment (remember in this example, you only need $1800, plus trading fees).
Let’s roll!
Now one month later, the share price is between $18 and $22, there are few days of expiration left, and you don’t want to be assigned, but you want to continue the same process for next month. You could close the current position, and reopen a new short put, or you could in one single transaction buy back your current short put, and sell another put for next month. Doing one trade instead of two is usually cheaper because you reduce the slippage cost. The closing of the old position and re-opening of a new short position for the next expiration is called rolling the short option (from month to month, but you can also do this with weekly options).
The croll can be done a week or even a few days before expiration. Remember to avoid expiration days, and be careful being short an option on ex-dividend dates. When you roll month to month with the same strike, for most cases, you will get some money out of it. However, the farther your strike is from the current share price, the less additional premium you will get (due to the lower extrinsic value on the new option), and it can end up being close to $0. At that point, given the risk incurred, you may prefer to close the trade altogether or just be assigned. During the roll, depending on if the share price moved a bit, you can adjust the roll up or down. For example, you buy back your short put at $18, and you sell a new short put at $17 or $19, or whatever value makes the most sense.
Assignment
Now, let’s say that the share price finally dropped below $20, and you decided not to roll, or it dropped so much that the roll would not make sense. You ended up getting your shares assigned at a strike price of $18 per share. Note that the assigned share may have a current price much lower than $18 though. If that’s the case, remember that you earned more money than if you bought the shares outright at $20 (at least, you got to keep the $2 premium). And if you rolled multiple times, every premium that you got is additional money in your account.
Want to sell at a premium? Sell Covered Calls.
You could decide to hold onto the shares that you got at a discount, or you may decide that the stock price is going to go sideways, and you are fine collecting more theta. For example, you could sell a call at a strike of $20, for example for $1 (as it is OTM now given the stock price dropped).
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 20 CALL @ 1.00
When close to the expiration time, you can either roll your calls again, the same way that you rolled your puts, as much as you can, or just get assigned if the share price went up. As you get assigned, your shares are called away, and you receive $2000 from the 100 shares at $20 each. Except that you accumulated more money due to all the premiums you got along the way.
This sequence of the short put, roll, roll, roll, assignment, the short call, roll, roll, roll, is called the wheel.
It is a great strategy to use when the market is trading sideways and volatility is high (like currently). It is a low-risk trade provided that the share you pick is not a risky one (pick a market ETF to start) perfect to get create some income with options. There are two drawbacks though:
You will have to be patient for the share to go back up, but often you can end up with many shares at a loss if the market has been tanking. As a rule of thumb, if I get assigned, I never ever sell a call below my assignment strike minus the premium. In case the market jumps back up, I can get back to my original position, with an additional premium on the way. Market and shares can drop like a stone and bounce back up very quickly (you remember this March and April?), and you really don’t want to lock a loss.
Here is a very quick example of something to not do: Assigned at $18, current price is $15, sell a call at $16 for $1, share goes back up to $22. I get assigned at $16. In summary, I bought a share at $18, and sold it at $17 ($16 + $1 premium), I lost $1 between the two assignments. That’s bad.
You will have to find some other companies to do the wheel on. If it softens the blow a bit, your retirement account may be purely long, so you’ll not have totally missed the upside anyway.
A short put is a bullish position. A short call is a bearish position. Alternating between the two gives you a strategy looking for a reversion to the mean. Both of these positions are positive theta, and negative vega (see part 2).
Now that I explained the advantage of the long calls and puts, and how to use short calls and puts, we can explore a combination of both.
Verticals
Most option beginners are going to use long calls (or even puts). They are going to gain some money here and there, but for most parts, they will lose money. It is worse if they profited a bit at the beginning, they became confident, bet a bigger amount, and ended up losing a lot. They either buy too much (50% of my account on this call trade that can’t fail), too high of a volatility (got to buy those NKLA calls or puts), or too short / too long of an expiration (I don’t want to lose theta, or I overspent on theta).
As we discussed earlier, a straight long call or put is one of the worst positions to be in. You are significantly negative theta and positive vega. But if you take a step back, you will realize that not accounting for the premium, buying a call gives you the upside of stock up to the infinity (and buying a put gives you the upside of the stock going to $0). But in reality, you rarely are betting that the stock will go to infinity (or to $0). You are often just betting that the stock will go up (or down) by X%. Although the stock could go up (or down) by more than X%, you intuitively understand that there is a smaller chance for this to happen. Options are giving you leverage already, you don’t need to target even more gain.
More importantly, you probably should not pay for a profit/risk profile that you don’t think is going to happen.
Enter verticals. It is a combination of long and short calls (or puts). Say, the company ABC trades at $20, you want to take a bullish position, and the ATM call is $2. You probably would be happy if the stock reaches $25, and you don’t think that it will go much higher than that.
You can buy a $20 call for $2, and sell a $25 call for $0.65. You will get the upside from $20 to $25, and you let someone else take the $25 to infinity range (highly improbable). The cost is $1.35 per share ($2.00 - $0.65).
BUY +1 VERTICAL ABC 100 17 JUL 20 20/25 CALL @ 1.35
This position is interesting for multiple reasons. First, you still get the most probable range for profitability ($20 to $25). Your cost is $1.35 so 33% cheaper than the long call, and your max profit is $5 - $1.35 = $3.65. So your max gain is 270% of the risked amount, and this is for only a 25% increase in the stock price. This is really good already. You reduced your dependency on theta and vega, because the short side of the vertical is reducing your long side’s. You let someone else pay for it.
Another advantage is that it limits your max profit, and it is not a bad thing. Why is it a good thing? Because it is too easy to be greedy and always wanting and hoping for more profit. The share reached $25. What about $30? It reached $30, what about $35? Dang it dropped back to $20, I should have sold everything at the top, now my call expires worthless. But with a vertical, you know the max gain, and you paid a premium for an exact profit/risk profile. As soon as you enter the vertical, you could enter a close order at 90% of the max value (buy at $1.35, sell at $4.50), good till to cancel, and you hope that the trade will eventually be executed. It can only hit 100% profit at expiration, so you have to target a bit less to get out as soon as you can once you have a good enough profit. This way you lock your profit, and you have no risk anymore in case the market drops afterwards.
These verticals (also called spreads) can be bullish or bearish and constructed as debit (you pay some money) or credit (you get paid some money). The debit or credit versions are equivalent, the credit version has a bit of a higher chance to get assigned sooner, but as long as you check the extrinsic value, ex-dividend date, and are not too deep ITM you will be fine. I personally prefer getting paid some money, I like having a bigger balance and never have to pay for margin. :)
Here are the 4 trades for a $20 share price:
CALL BUY 20 ATM / SELL 25 OTM - Bullish spread - Debit
CALL BUY 25 OTM / SELL 20 ATM - Bearish spread - Credit
PUT BUY 20 ATM / SELL 25 ITM - Bullish spread - Credit
PUT BUY 25 ITM / SELL 20 ATM - Bearish spread - Debit
Because both bullish trades are equivalent, you will notice that they both have the same profit/risk profile (despite having different debit and credit prices due to the OTM/ITM differences). Same for the bearish trades. Remember that the cost of an ITM option is greater than ATM, which in turn is greater than an OTM. And that relationship is what makes a vertical a credit or a debit.
I understand that it can be a lot to take in. Let’s take a step back here. I picked a $20/$25 vertical, but with the share price at $20, I could have a similar $5 spread with $15/$20 (with the same 4 constructs). Or instead of 1 vertical $20/$25, I could have bought 5 verticals $20/$21. This is a $5 range as well, except that it has a higher probability for the share to be above $21. However, it also means that the spread will be more expensive (you’ll have to play with your broker tool to understand this better), and it also increases the trading fees and potentially overall slippage, as you have 5 times more contracts. Or you could even decide to pick OTM $25/$30, which would be even cheaper. In this case, you don’t need the share to reach $30 to get a lot of profit. The contracts will be much cheaper (for example, like $0.40 per share), and if the share price goes up to $25 quickly long before expiration, the vertical could be worth $1.00, and you would have 150% of profit without the share having to reach $30.
If you decide to trade these verticals the first few times, look a lot at the numbers before you trade to make sure you are not making a mistake. With a debit vertical, the most you can lose per contract is the premium you paid. With a credit vertical, the most you can lose is the difference between your strikes, minus the premium you received.
One last but important note about verticals:
If your short side is too deep ITM, you may be assigned. It happens. If you bought some vertical with a high strike value, for example:
SELL +20 VERTICAL SPY 100 17 JUL 20 350/351 PUT @ 0.95
Here, not accounting for trading fees and slippage, you paid $0.95 per share for 20 contracts that will be worth $1 per share if SPY is less than $350 by mid-July, which is pretty certain. That’s a 5% return in 4 weeks (in reality, the trading fees are going to reduce most of that). Your actual risk on this trade is $1900 (20 contracts * 100 shares * $0.95) plus trading fees. That’s a small trade, however the underlying instrument you are controlling is much more than that.
Let’s see this in more detail: You enter the trade with a $1900 potential max loss, and you get assigned on the short put side (strike of $350) after a few weeks. Someone paid expensive puts and exercised 20 puts with a strike of $350 on their existing SPY shares (2000 of them, 20 contracts * 100 shares). You will suddenly receive 2000 shares on your account, that you paid $350 each. Thus your balance is going to show -$700,000 (you have 2000 shares to balance that).
If that happens to you: DON’T PANIC. BREATHE. YOU ARE FINE.
You owe $700k to your broker, but you have roughly the same amount in shares anyway. You are STILL protected by your long $351 puts. If the share price goes up by $1, you gain $2000 from the shares, but your long $351 put will lose $2000. Nothing changed. If the share price goes down by $1, you lose $2000 from the shares, but your long $350 put will gain $2000. Nothing changed. Just close your position nicely by selling your shares first, and just after selling your puts. Some brokers can do that in one single trade (put based covered stock). Don’t let the panic set in. Remember that you are hedged. Don’t forget about the slippage, don’t let the market makers take advantage of your panic. Worst case scenario, if you use a quality broker with good customer service, call them, and they will close your position for you, especially if this happens in an IRA.
The reason I am insisting so much on this is because of last week’s event. Yes, the RH platform may have shown incorrect numbers for a while, but before you trade options you need to understand the various edge cases. Again if this happens to you, don’t panic, breathe, and please be safe.
This concludes my post 3a. We talked about the trade-offs between buying shares, buying calls instead, selling puts to get some premium to buy some shares at a cheaper price, rolling your short puts, getting your puts assigned, selling calls to get some additional money in sideways markets, rolling your short calls, having your calls assigned too. We talked about the wheel, being this whole sequence spanning multiple months. After that, we discussed the concept of verticals, with bullish and bearish spreads that can be either built as a debit or a credit.
And if there is one thing you need to learn from this, avoid buying straight calls or puts but use verticals instead, especially if the volatility is very high. And do not ever sell naked calls, again use verticals.
The next post will explain more advanced and interesting option strategies.
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Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
submitted by _WhatchaDoin_ to investing [link] [comments]

Economic Symbiogenesis

Visuals
Economic Evolution Thomas J Novak
Disclaimers 1. I wish to contend that Micro and Macro Economics each constitute a hidden branch of evolution. To be clear, I’m not arguing for an analogy, ​I’m arguing each branch is an evolutionary process; and with this comes the mathematical framework needed to scientifically ​objectify success (major goal for every Capitalist). 2. The quantitative aspects are partially rooted in Game Theoretic Evolution. I do not expect this theory will garner majority support or ​understanding. It is only an esoteric theoretical ideal; but it is my hope that this will gradually change until one-day we have a Utopia. 3. The mechanism is voluntary through rational self-incentives. It advocates for a change in perspective for optimal decision making purposes. 4. Dollars and other fiat currencies are still completely necessary. Fiat currency constitutes a valuable technology that eliminates the need for ​bartering, yielding considerable savings in life’s prime asset - TIME. 5. I apologize to the reader in advance for the long essay. I hope it is "worth" your time.
Key Conclusions
Present day humanity is full of capitalists that have the right idea but are missing some key math. This is causing them to behave inefficiently in the context of their own self-interests. Ideal Capitalism is Pareto Optimal and should be practiced by all; and it should lead to maximal economic growth. I also wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades. Key developments are nuclear weapons and the internet. Discussed more in the last section.
Introduction
The "science" of Economics is not yet a science. Don't get me wrong - micro-economics is just about there; but macro-econ is a totally different story. Some call it “The Dismal Science” because it makes many quantitative claims that are inconsistent with empirical data. An example is the claim that John Rockefeller’s fortune could be made comparable to contemporary fortunes by adjusting his dollars for inflation and real growth. In fact only adjusting his hours for real growth does the trick.
In general macro-econ has a zero-sum-dollar-centric structure that does not allow for input of things like maternity and child rearing - two fundamentally "valuable" human activities. Another problem is that planetary-wide risks like war, (and that which is assured by "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD)), are not naturally measurable in dollars.
Some concepts from financial mathematics and science can generalize economic measurements into a co-compatible theory that almost seems too simple to be necessary. Basic results agree with common sense in every way. Some conclusions are so obvious the calculation seems pointless. Others might be beyond common sense similar to the notion that the Earth on which one walks is anything but flat. The former supports credence for the latter. All examples of human stupidity supports a need for all of it.
Ideal Capitalism
Most powers past through present can be thought cold, "calculating”, and self-interested; and most presently embrace association with Capitalism. Paradoxically, human history, (even recent), is a litany of fighting and stupidity and hurt feelings. These are inefficiencies from the Capitalist perspective, so something must be wrong with these “calculations”.
The argument will start with a Micro-Economic exercise intended to provide quantitative framework to measure just how unCapitalistic many present-day capitalists are acting, by unitizing all their actions in a scientific manner. Any Capitalist wishing to maximize their net-worth will be made more materialistically rich simply by maintaining complete indifference about others, understanding the entire picture, and trusting numbers. Wall Street can confirm this is its goal.
“Complete indifference” means precisely 0 concern for anything other than material-self-worth and 100% concern for material-self-worth. Nonzero concern for others, positive or negative, is suboptimal since it distracts from the objective of maximizing self-worth. Footnote 1: “Others” does not include the friends and family category. All intentional altruism can be represented easily by having those individuals' interests summed and grouped together so as to be viewed as part of the Capitalist’s “self-interest”. All reasoning forward is unaffected by how many friends and family are now implied to be included.
The results can empower all decision makers to calculate in the only way possible: with actual mathematics. The numbers will sometimes disagree with intuition; but the numbers will always be correct. The optimal strategy will hardly change except for sufficiently wealthy individuals. The proof can be seen empirically by back-testing the model in history on the domain in which all success is measured: quality-weighted-time (qwt). The definition of qwt will leverage Game Theoretic Evolution and is discussed more below.
Some conclusions may be counterintuitive similar to the way natural selection favored Symbiogenesis; but maximum profit calls for absolute “trust” in numbers above all else - exactly as exhibited in microbial evolution. Any call for “selfless” acting resulting in benefits to others is strictly incidental; and any less is unselfishly selfish in that it renders this inefficient capitalist less wealthy than maximally possible.
Step 1 - Any political bias about aiding others should be deleted. An “Ideal Capitalist” expresses precisely 0 concern for others and what others think - no more, no less. As long as an individual is correctly acting in their own best interests, they are acting as a Capitalist. Contra-positively one can claim to be a capitalist and act inefficiently against their own interests as many “capitalists” will be shown are doing today. I suggest a new term “Maximalist” to mean an Ideal Capitalist and avoid the need for case sensitivity.
Step 2 - Success Spawns Success. What is meant by quality-weighted-time? The definition comes from the only objective arbiter possible: Evolution through Survival of the Fittest. Something is “fit”, or “successful”, if it results in more quantity (Q) or more quality (q), where more quality means it produced more Quantity faster - which renders it more successful. This is The Tautology of Evolutionary Game Theory (The Tautology). For any evolutionary process, quantity is the metric which quantifies success. Quality is measured in quantity per unit of time (q=Q/t). Note that multiplying q=Q/t with t yields Q=qwt: the metric of success that necessarily satisfies The Tautology. Footnote 2: The word “tautology” is meant in the propositional logic sense. No negative connotation should be inferred.
Step 3 - How to connect economics with evolution?
Micro-economic decision strategy for trading time (t) for dollars ($), (or $ for t), amounts to a “phenotype”, (or observable trait), coded for by genetics inherited or mutated, and ideas learned or created. Respectively: - Inherited genetics constrain every rational human to be “risk averse”, regardless of self-perception, because natural selection favored and continues to favor risk aversion. Defined below and proven further below. - Mutated genes are almost never favorable for a human so this case will be discarded (although this force is quite powerful over quintillions of human-hours). - Richard Dawkins creatively postulated ideas to be “memes”: new evolutionarily viable packets of information, subject to selection forces, as they spread from person to person with varying levels of success overtime. Respectively gene inheritance and mutation is analogous to meme learning and creation. Furthermore the economy can be seen as a subsection of the biosphere governed primarily by evolution through forces of selection. The economy evolves through selection of both genes and memes, and memes are more abstract; but this should not change anything about the evolutionary game theory. After all humanity itself is naturally occurring, so Artificial Selection of Genes and Memes can be seen as a more complex extended phenotype coded for by the evolution of genes through Natural Selection. Any argument that “Artificial Selection” constitutes a meaningful difference from “Natural Selection” must first come to terms with the observation that humanity is itself, naturally occurring.
Step 4 - What is the definition of “risk averse”? The mathematical definition of risk averse simply requires diminishing returns to be experienced on assets like dollars. For example: an additional $1M adds less “utility” if you presently have $2B, compared to if you presently have $2M. If a person is not risk averse, then more success encourages more risky behavior. This is inconsistent with the observation that more success means one has more to lose. Therefore any risk-inclined individual cannot be an Ideal Capitalist as they will almost surely go broke gambling.
Step 5 - What is “utility”? Utility is the abstract micro-economic concept that, by definition, quantifies value. The unsettled question of how to actually do this is addressed below.
Total Utility = True Material Self-Worth = “well-offness”. All have one-to-one correspondence with each other. All are “mutually inclusive”. For example: twice the quantity of utility, by definition, means twice material self-worth; and so, the individual is exactly twice better-off. Diminishing returns do not apply to quantities of utility.
Step 6 - How to define an objective function to maximize utility? Per Wikipedia: “Consider a set of alternatives facing an individual, and over which the individual has a preference ordering. A ‘utility function’ is able to represent those preferences if it is possible to assign a real number to each alternative, in such a way that alternative A is assigned a number greater than alternative B if, and only if, the individual prefers alternative A to alternative B.”
Keynote: dollars are not material wealth, dollars buy material wealth, with diminishing returns, limited by genes, memes, and the quality and Quantity of the Marketplace (respectively qQMP).
To illustrate this, consider how rich you would be with $1T cash on Mars in the present day marketplace. Personally as an oxygen breathing Capitalist, I would view my self-worth as constituting a liability - measurable in my personal subjective frame of reference in units of time, weighted by some self-knowable quality of life representing the quantity of misery per hour that I experience dying alone. Presently the quality of the marketplace on Mars is exactly 0 because 0 quantity is available for purchase. Footnote 3: The quality of life purchasable given the Time and Place is shown below to be bounded from above, although it is by no means bounded from below.
Back to Earth. If sufficiently rich, then maximizing material wealth calls for buying everything in desired amounts to maximize present quality of Life (qoL), holding ample dollars in reserve to spend on future qoL (like new inventions) and future quantity (like new medicine), and allocating the rest to increase future qQ which is not presently available for purchase. In keeping with The Tautology, qoL enhancements will provide for faster consumption of Quantity (Q=qwt). Note how perfectly this fits with The Tautology.
Ideally a good Capitalist with sufficient dollars would employ a strategy so as to maximize qoL at every point in time by exhausting most/all dollars by death. Any argument that an individual cannot meaningfully increase future qQMP fails. As an example: a medical breakthrough for genetic predispositions could yield considerably more time for any one capitalist, with expected returns modeled via actuarial mathematics. Consider just how far Humanity has come since the birth of The Enlightenment - it is easy to see how the not-so-distant future may include considerably more qQoL for sale. (Conversely the future may include far less qQoL if macro-decision-public-policy modeling continues to fail to quantify/unitize the cost of war - discussed more in the Macro Economic qwt section below.)
qQ enhancements, although more subjective, can be substantially accelerated by one talented individual. Examples include Albert Einstein, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. All are responsible for inventing and/or producing new things which I personally enjoy - the qQoL that I can purchase is greater as a result of their work. My time and money could not purchase such things if they were not invented. As discussed next, micro-economic quality weights are quality of Life (qoL) weights. They have an upper bound that can be “objectively” unitized and measured by the self-interested party's own frame of reference.
Step 7 - How can an individual objectively define an upper bound for these inherently subjective quality weights with any mathematical rigor? Is it possible that more dollars does not always result in more utility? Yes!
Proof Reductio ad Absurdum
Ripping off an idea from one of the greatest thinkers ever - I propose a financial thought experiment: pretend it is possible for you to pause all of society and gamble once at the “Name Your Winnings Casino”.
Here you can choose entering into an even bet: 50% of the time you win the largest number of dollars you can mathematically express = $P; or 50% of the time you suffer absolute ruin: the casino takes everything of material value and your dollars and returns you to the real world where no insurance policies exist for you and no friends or family are able to ease your loss by lending a couch to sleep on or pulling strings for a job offeinterview. If you lose you reenter the world a naked homeless person “worth” exactly $0.
Four observations follow:
  1. The decision to bet is made independent of any consideration of others, consistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
  2. Any sane human with the smallest capacity for self-honestly could conservatively estimate a walk-away number A, (denominated in dollars), such that if present “net worth” is greater than $A then no bet.
  3. No rational person choosing to bet would play more than once because either they’d lose or they’d win $P and have received the payout they named. “Letting it ride” constitutes an obviously dumb decision born out of the unwillingness to simply express the larger number in the first bet; however, a risk-inclined individual always values more over what they have and so they would be compelled to keep betting. Therefore rationality is mutually exclusive with risk-inclination. Furthermore if the betting person is risk averse, then $A is strictly less than $P for some minimum value of $P.
  4. Some confident rational individual might argue no such number $A exists for them because they’re so good they can start all over if they lose and earn a new fortune; and it would at first glance seem this individual is correct.
Many logical conclusions result:
A. An honest estimate for $A irrefutably reveals a hidden upper bound for this individual’s “Utility Curve”. Specifically if the function A’($A) = A’ maps to utility derived by $A dollar denominated “wealth”, then no amount of dollars even exists for this individual to choose to bet. Mathematically: “Net worth” > “Bet value” => “Net worth” > “50% times upside minus 50% times downside” => A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) - .5A’($A) => 1.5A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) => 3A’($A) > A’($A+$P) for all values of $P (The left hand-side must be greater or the bet would not be declined by a rational individual.)
B. 3A’ is not presently purchasable with any amount of dollars. 3A’ may be purchased in some future marketplace, (possibly with less than A future dollars), in the form of a medical breakthrough or buying future children birthday presents, but it is not currently purchasable in the present as demonstrated by the individual’s refusal to bet. Conversely A future dollars may lose “purchasing power” of just A’ if the future marketplace is inferior. Therefore true material-worth is fundamentally a function of the marketplace and cannot even be expressed in terms of dollars.
C. Most choosing to bet would logically express the upside payout $P as a sequence of 9s. Many more would know to use powers of powers. Knowledge of Knuth’s Up Arrow Notation could simultaneously save time and yield considerably “more upside”. Due consideration for exactly how much time should be spent writing out fantastically large numbers reveals an irrefutably objective hidden limiting factor: this person’s lifetime - measurable in units of time. This reveals one of two hidden domains on which value must be measured - TIME!
D. From this it directly follows that the confident individual in (4) is wrong. Some number $A<$P must exist, EVEN FOR THEM. However this individual is sure $A doesn’t and keeps writing numbers out for $P until they die. Therefore $A for them equals the number they have written out at time of death, never having played the game. I believe this is the definition of a Darwinian unfit capitalist - completely inconsistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
Analysis
The argument above establishes a horizontal bound for utility – lifetime measurable in units of time. It also establishes a finite upper bound for utility itself (represented by the area of the “utility rectangle” - see spreadsheet). This implies a finite upper bound for the rectangle’s height must exist; and this is empirically supported by the observation that billionaires are not known to blow through their life fortune in any short-period of time.
So why does any sufficiently wealthy capitalist focus on earning more dollars and die before exhausting most/all of their dollars (last death if family inheritance involved)? If sufficiently wealthy, material wealth is necessarily a bounded function of The Time Period, or the “quality and Quantity of the Marketplace”. TTP = qQMP >= qQoL. In other words, the marketplace itself is secretly an asset for every Capitalist!
qMP(TTP) = Max quality of life, or “max utility per hour” available for purchase in TTP QMP(TTP) = Max Quantity of life, or “max utility” for purchase in TTP (IE a longer vacation or medicine)
Thus on the micro level, quality weights are utility weights; and utility weights are capped by The Time Period. Thus it is the case that for every (finite) individual, a finite upper bound for utility is self-measurable in Time Period-Weighted Time (qwt = TPWT). For example: 2020 hours have far more value to any sufficiently rational and wealthy individual (SRWI) than 1920 hours. And as the earlier questionnaire (hopefully) shows, this is realizable by most middle-class people today. In other words, today’s middle class is sufficiently wealthy to the extent TPWT resolves the Rockefeller paradox. Footnote8: The size of the middle class itself is unfortunately shrinking. This has potential to result in negative externalities for all.
Since an Ideal Capitalist maximizes self-material-wealth above all else, then if they were also sufficiently wealthy, they would measure value in Time-Period-Weighted Hours since they would always purchase maximum utility per hour. This is by definition, since any SRWI has all necessary means to purchase max utility available per hour. (Note just how important quick access to true information would be.) Footnote 9: Neuroscience could use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to objectively measure the Micro-Economic utility unit as “Neurotransmitter-Molecular-Count Weighted Hours”. Consideration for how to weight different neurotransmitters (like Serotonin vs Dopamine) would be necessary. For now, we are all similar enough for “time” to suffice, at least for short run measurements. For example: what is the penalty for severe crimes? “Time in jail” or death (all the person’s time).
Quantifying the Marketplace
Given the average life expectancy now is more than twice that of prehistoric man, the marketplace itself is worth strictly more than 50% of any sufficiently wealthy individual’s “asset portfolio”. Just note “time is money”. Footnote 10: They need not be rational to "realize" this time, so long as their doctor is sufficiently competent. "Realization" will come in the form of living longer, quite consistent with the accounting definition of gain/loss realization.
Keynote - a Maximalist will do more than just maximize present qQ purchased. They will also divert unneeded dollars to maximize future qQMP so that more qQ is available for purchase. Thus the Maximalist calculation includes due consideration for additional dollars that will be needed given future qQ becomes available.
Squaring Theory with Reality
Most already know most of this, at least on the common-sense level. So why don’t sufficiently wealthy Capitalists invest maximum dollars with less strings attached to maximize the future? Is it because that would help everyone else and constitute socialism? No! In this context socialism is Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”. A good Capitalist aims for precisely 0 concern about others, and any concern for implied socialism would constitute nonzero concern. Such concern would amount to incomprehensible irrationality far beneath any good Capitalist. So what else could it be?
Perhaps it’s simply the fact that much of humanity is still measuring their net-worth in the wrong dimension for the inefficient purpose of feeling superior to others with less money. Anyone currently doing this quite literally knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, not even their own self fortune, because they are using the wrong dimension of measurement. quality-weighted-time is the objectively correct way in which real value should be measured, and quality weighting is limited only by The Time Period in which time and money are being spent.
More noteworthy, any human mistaking dollars for qwt for this scorekeeping reason is still violating the prime rule of being a good Capitalist - they are demonstrating nonzero-concern for what others think of them. Implicitly and inefficiently, these individuals are expressing negative concern for others, as now is measurable by how worse off they are in units of their time. Specifically this is calculable as the opportunity cost of not investing more dollars for an enhanced future marketplace, measurable by others in said marketplace by the cost to this imperfect capitalist’s life expectancy, (all unitized in units of time).
Equity Miracle Swap Instruments
Perhaps the above explanations are not exhaustive of the full truth. Maybe some sufficiently wealthy Capitalists simply do not have the means to invest their dollars in a way that can reliably pay greater dividends. Therefore I propose a new type of financial derivative instrument called an “Equity Miracle Swap”. These would be voluntarily issued as contracts from the mega-wealthy. Here is a hypothetical example:
Rational (and thus risk averse) Billionaire-G (BG) possessing $100B in dollar-denominated-capital can now do research and will likely find they are genetically predisposed to a (presently) incurable illness (let’s say Small Cell Lung Cancer = SCLC). BG could use the chancy math in the proof above and might determine that Billions $91-$100 have minimal true value to him/herself when converted to qwt. Therefore BG could decide to start up an enterprise to find a cure for SCLC and use a $10B Equity Miracle Swap = EMSSCLC-$10B, or just “EMS” for short. The purpose is to maximally incent the researchers, who might otherwise just be employees. The contract would stipulate that all equity in the enterprise transfers over to the research team only upon successful development of the cure.
When measured in dollars, the payoff for BG is represented by the performance of the stock, which is greater than -$10B if no cure; or -$10B if the miracle cure is found. The former is greater than the latter. Which do you think BG will prefer? Obviously the latter, especially if they wind up contracting SCLC in the future! But the former was greater measured in dollars? How to reconcile?
This can be quantitatively reconciled by using the correct unit of measurement - qwt. Here is how: the newly discovered cure might empower their remaining dollars to purchase considerably more qwt in the future. The real expected return on investment for BG could be calculated actuarially as follows: Expected ROI = { Expected Return }/{ Investment } = { E(Δqwt | Miracle) * [ P(Miracle | EMS) - P(Miracle | no EMS) ] }/{ A’($100B) - A’($90B) } Where: 1. A’($D) maps to utility measured in quality-weighted-time presently purchasable by D dollars 2. E(Δqwt | Miracle) = Expected change in purchasable qwt given miracle cure occurs in lifetime 3. P(Miracle | Event X) = Probability of Miracle given Event X
Note that because BG is risk averse, diminishing returns render billions $91-$100 worth very little qwt. Therefore the cost in the denominator = A’($100B) - A’($90B) constitutes a very small amount of qwt, rendering the expected ROI very large, even for relatively small changes to P(Miracle). Obviously the lawyers could tinker with the terms of the contract. Finally note that society is incidentally made better off if the cure is found.
Macro-Economic qwt
Please now consider the benefit of a qwt-centric model from a Macro-Economic standpoint in the context of the Doomsday Clock, where as always, economics can objectively measure value (or “GDP”) in units of quality-weighted-time. On this Macro scale, the quantity unit will be "Healthy Human Hours", calculated as always by multiplying quality weights of presently healthy humans, with units of time, where any human is healthy if he/she produces more future human hours. Note how naturally maternity and child-raising now fit into GDP.
This may also help resolve the argument over which crimes should be punishable with incarceration - specifically only crimes where the individual is deemed likely to contribute less negative future qwt to GDP when in jail vs when out of jail. Also there is a natural extension of this for the death penalty, although I do not wish to make such moral judgements. Footnote 10: Any argument that population overgrowth leads to mass death is correct. Policy models need only step back and estimate healthy human hours in the more distant future. Calculus can be used to model public policy decisions from present-day infinitely far into the future and compare infinite relativities for different policy options.
Also consider that actuarial modeling could be used to objectively estimate the cost of disinformation posed to every Capitalist on the planet, measurable of course, in units of time. Specifically calculated as expected changes to Humanity’s Expectation of Life on the Doomsday Clock, plus individual life expectancy given Midnight, times the probability of midnight. Also observe the need and means for due discount in modeling the "decrease" in the future qQMP (which might include radiation).
The Emergence of Economic Symbiogenesis
Try to arrive at the conclusion any good Capitalist must. Here is a hint - genetic Symbiogenesis resulted in the planetary-wide cooperation of all plant and animal life to regulate Earth’s Oxygen concentration. Note the immense success is, of course, measured in qwt. Weighting in this context needs to satisfy the same tautology as always. Therefore the final answer on this Mega-Macro scale comes in organism-count-weighted units of time. This is the current game strategy that genetic Evolution has concluded on Earth to date. It came from pitting individual selfish microbial interests against one another in the 0-rules game of survival of the fittest. The result is the current marriage between the Plant and Animal Kingdoms! (Like all great marriages there are still a few mentionable skirmishes.)
Also observe the micro-macro relational analogue between Chloroplasts and Mitochondria with Plants and Animals. Consider how this might analogize individual decision making with the marketplace as a whole.
If you are religious, consider just how correct this implies your understanding of God’s wish for the general wellbeing of every individual to be.
My conclusion is that there is a trail of breadcrumbs for our species to follow and we’ve had the right idea all along. We’ve just been doing the math wrong. Now every decision maker can better understand how to measure their own self-fortune and get to growing it faster!
Also interesting is the game theoretic argument for why every person must be allowed full forgiveness - it is the only way world leaders who are concerned for their own wellbeing could possibly embrace such a model. Astonishingly full forgiveness is 100% consistent with every major religion’s claim of what God hopes all of us can achieve. In economics, any desire for revenge can now be seen as The Sunk Cost Fallacy, measurable as always in units of qwt.
Finally, I wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades.
Key Technological Developments 1. The advent of nuclear weapons which align all of humanity's interests in a way which never used to exist. Even survivors of a nuclear war will be far worse off, now as measurable by decreases to the quality and Quantity of any future radioactive marketplace. Less qwt for purchase! 2. The advent of the internet renders information around the globe nearly free and instantaneous. If we can learn to be more self-interested, the only conclusion which rationally follows is to dismantle all troll farms for the simple purpose of maximizing Macro Time until Doomsday. The New Nash Equilibrium available to our race could be quantitatively modeled with actuarial techniques, and the optimal solution is to push Midnight infinitely far into the future by allowing every rational decision maker the means to make rational decisions with 100% true information. The internet sets up a worldwide analogy with our nervous system.
Footnote 11 - The Micro-Economic Model is now consistent with John Lennon's definition of life success: happiness. When asked what he wanted to “be” when he grew up, John responded "happy". John’s teacher thought he misunderstood the question. If John's teacher had instead followed up with the question to quantify: "How happy do you want to be?" - John could have replied: "as happy as possible for all my years.”
Footnote 12 - Warren Buffet's advice to "do what you love so you never work a day in your life" is quantified naturally by the model. I hope that more will start to take this advice. The qwt-centric-micro-model shows they will quite literally be made richer as a result. Given that richer people tend to contribute more to GDP, society will be made incidentally better off as a result. Star Trek almost had it but missed two words: “we work to better ourselves, and incidentally, the rest of mankind”.
submitted by tjn50351 to evolutionReddit [link] [comments]

ComeOn Casino 300 free spins bonus no deposit required (register)

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ComeOn Casino & Sports Review

The company is fairly new to the online gambling business, having started in 2008 under Malta’s jurisdiction, although it’s obviously racked some years under its belt already. Now that I think of it, we rarely review sites younger than ComeOn!, probably because you need to see how a site treats its customers for consistent period of time.
To make it as an online gambling site, you need to provide years and years of consistently honest and high-quality service to get us to write about you. (We wish some of the other informational gambling sites followed the same principles – when dealing with real money, it’s better to be safe than sorry.)
You might assume that ComeOn is diving deeper into the UK market by agreeing to a sponsorship deal with Liverpool – however, the sponsorship is mainly used to promote ComeOn! to Liverpool’s Scandinavian fanbase, which is quite significant considering that John Arne Riise (Norway) and Sami Hyypia (Finland) were important first-team players within the Liverpool squad, and both were in the starting line-up when Liverpool won the Champions League in 2005.

About ComeOn Casino

ComeOn and play! With a name like ComeOn!, you’re already off to a fun start.
ComeOn! offers both a Casino and Sportsbook with Live Betting in each, and its name reflects its personality. I was excited to see a fun, lighthearted approach to online gambling. After all, what other casino mentions Shakespeare in their “About” section?
The attractive website featuring clever explanations and instructions especially shines through on the promotions page and in the sportsbook. You’ve got enough information to keep you satisfied, but not too much to bore you. The bonuses and rewards offers are abundant, well-organized and explained. The sportsbook has one of the most user-friendly layouts, and that can be tricky when you’re featuring endless numbers.
I certainly don’t want to leave out the casino as it features a combination of the top software companies. The result is a total of over 500 gaming favorites including some of the life-changing progressive slot jackpots like the “Megas” – Fortune and Moolah. You’ll also find Hall of Gods, and ten others that you may be familiar with if you’re a slot aficionado.
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Who Can Play at ComeOn! Casino?

I’m on the UK-version of the casino that offers the most significant variety for players, as some of the gaming is restricted in other geographical areas.
Although the site is open to customers from most countries, it does not allow players from the following countries:
  • United States
  • Australia
  • Czech Republic
  • Croatia
  • Curaçao
  • France
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Netherlands
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Spain
  • Turkey

Software Suppliers

I think it’s a benefit when a casino provides games from a wide variety of software companies. It not only boosts the number of games and the variations, but it allows for more of the top progressive jackpots.
For example, using both NetEnt and Microgaming allows ComeOn! Slot players access to both of the all-time big money games, Mega Fortune and Mega Moolah.
The casino offers selections from Evolution Gaming, Microgaming, NetEnt, Play ‘n Go, Playtech, WMS, and Yggdrasil. The sportsbook features Sports Betting Tech software.
There is a list of exclusions in the terms and conditions area that come with each of the companies. Each software developer has its individual licensing and restrictions, so the game catalog will vary depending on where you live.
In the case of Microgaming and NetEnt, there are also some specific game restrictions. So, where you may see some of their offerings, a few titles will be removed based on location. The same applies to Sports Betting Tech and the sportsbook access.
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The Good Stuff

2,000+ Game Casino

Not only are there plenty of gaming options, but I like the combination of the top providers like NetEnt and Microgaming used as players can choose from their all-time favorites in one place. There is a wide range of games for the slot, table game, and video poker players but, specialty games is notably missing from the menu. The addition of some scratch cards, keno, bingo, and parlor games would take the casino to the next level.

Fast Payouts

If you’re using Skrill or Neteller as your financial method of choice, you can have your cash on hand in about a day. There’s a 24-hour internal processing window. But then, while credit cards and bank transfers could hold up the process for a few more days (or even up to seven), e-wallets have immediate transfer capability. Compared to some sites that take a week or two to pay, a 24-hour turnaround possibility is a considerable benefit.

Highly Recommended For Sports Bettors

Not only is the sportsbook extremely functional and, even the absolute beginner can navigate him or herself around easily, but this operator focuses on promotional opportunities for sports punters and provides an “odds boost” section. Players who use both the sportsbook and casino won’t miss out on anything by having to choose one over the other. The welcome bonus package and other offers aren’t “either or.” Clients can take advantage of all of the offers but just can’t combine the types of betting when meeting a wagering requirement.

The Bad Stuff

Mobile Casino

While I wouldn’t exactly call the mobile casino “bad,” it was disappointing. While there are plenty of gaming options, just over 400 to be more precise, it lacks the sorting mechanisms and information provided on the full website. A list of promotions isn’t available, and the casino was somewhat challenging. All of the games are grouped together in one area. You can isolate new games and jackpots but, whereas the full website has top-notch filtering, everything is combined on smartphones and tablets. It was surprising that the casino didn’t even separate out table games from slots and video poker. Fortunately, the mobile casino provides an option to pull up the regular website. You won’t then have the best mobile translation of the games, but you will have the ability to get to the promotions and to isolate some gaming possibilities.

Deposit Fees

This banking requirement came as another surprise to me. It’s extremely rare that a gambling site charge deposit fees unless it’s targeting Americans who don’t have much of choice in the matter. While there aren’t fees imposed for every option, bank transfers, Paysafecards, and Skrill will cost you 5% of your total deposit. Two free payouts per month are available, and then subsequent ones come with a €5 fee each.

Sportsbook

The ComeOn! sportsbook is one of the more conveniently laid out books that I’ve come across, especially for new and recreational punters regardless of being on the full site or mobile. Across the top link bar of the sports betting section you have access to live betting, today’s events, and also results. It’s rarer than you might think to have a site that gives you the results of your bets, so it’s nice to be able to find all of that here without having to go to the news or a sports site to get that information if you happen to miss watching your game.
The results section allows you to filter by sport, and what time the game or event was (last 24 hours, last 48 hours, last 4 days, or last 7 days). Along the right-hand side of all the pages in the sportsbook section, you can see live scores of popular games in progress. It’s nice to see an online sportsbook doing a little reporting instead of just taking bets and expecting you to go somewhere else for your results and updates. While most of you will be watching the games you’ve bet, it’s still a nice perk in case you get pulled away for something and have to miss the game.
With 30+ sports to choose from, you should have no problem getting action on your favorite game. They have all the major sports that you’d expect to see with a quality sportsbook and also some less popular sports like bandy, darts, sailing, and table tennis. We aren’t saying these sports aren’t popular (and awesome), we’re just saying it’s rare to see them on a sports betting site these days. Football matches, especially in England, offer more than 100 markets each and cover everything from Premier League, to Isthmian Premiere and Super League Women.
ComeOn! has a ton of specials bets for you to choose from that include politics, Christmas specials, and even the BBC Sports Personality of the Year. This book really gives you the ability to bet on anything that you want.
The minimum bet is just 40p, and this bookmaker does impose a £100,000 daily maximum win rule. So, if you’re a higher stakes bettor, grab your calculator and do the math first. That way you don’t lose out on anything above that mark.
The interface of the betting section is clean and easy to find the bets you are looking for. When you select a bet, it automatically pops over onto a slip on the right-hand side of the screen. From there, you can input your bet amount, and the program will automatically tell you how much you should expect to get back with a correct pick. You can type in your bet amount or click a plus or minus sign to jump up in convenient increments ($5, $10, $25, $50, $100, etc.). This is nice if you’re looking to get a quick bet in.
You can easily add multiple bets to your tickets to create parlays.
When you create a parlay with ComeOn! they give you some bonus odds that are a few more percentage points in your favor.
It looks like the more teams that you add to a parlay, the higher percentage bonus odds you will receive. This can be anywhere from 1% all the way up to 50% depending on your tickets. With three bets, we got an additional 5% in bonus odds for our bet.
One other feature that ComeOn! has that we feel should be industry standard but is not is the ability to switch all of the odds on the site between decimal, fractional, and American. This makes things easy for you in case you like to use a format over another. Some sportsbooks in today’s world still don’t have the ability for you to do this or force you to do it individually for each bet you’re making. Big props to ComeOn! for taking care of this one.
Overall, we were big fans of the sportsbook here. It was clean, well laid out, and had an enormous number of betting options to choose from. Their less popular sporting options and crazy specials bets were fantastic to see and not something that you’re going to get with just any book on the web. If you’re looking for a new sports betting home, this could be a slam dunk for you.
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ComeOn Casino Game Selection

The casino offers over 2,000 games combined in the regular and live dealer areas. Just as with most sites, slots are the primary focus, and ComeOn! provides 1,000 different ones from which to select. If you’re an avid slot player, you’ll recognize most of the names but, there could be a few mixed in to surprise you.
What I liked most about this casino are the extended sorting features. The jackpot games are in one section, but you can also search per name or filer them by the software company or via game bundle like “high stakes” or “classics.”
Below every game, there’s also a highlighted feature to help you pick the best one for you. It’ll say if there are sticky wilds, win both ways, the amount of the multiplier, high paying, multiple jackpots, 3D graphics, etc. I think those designations not only help new players but the experienced ones as well, find a new game based on what they enjoy most about slot play.

ComeOn Mobile Casino

Just over 400 of the 558 total games are transferred over for playing on the go, but they can be challenging to locate. The mobile casino offers large, colorful graphics, but you have to comb through hundreds of gaming options to narrow down your choices.
PLEASE NOTE
Oddly enough, there isn’t a separate section for slots, table games, and video poker. They’re all combined. You can access the ten-game jackpot section, but everything else is a mish-mash.

ComeOn Sportsbook Promotions

Usually, I find that gaming sites emphasize promotions for casino players and leave sports bettors pretty much out in the cold. However, on this site, you’ll see more rewards for sports punters.
There’s a Free Bet Club as well as ever-changing offers that are posted on the main sportsbook page. Sports bettors are also included in the welcome bonus and limited time promotions. They also have enhanced odds specials to boost the value of the betting experience with comeon.com.
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ComeOn Banking

When it comes to banking for ComeOn’s customers, there are plenty of options, especially for UK residents. What I was surprised to find, though, was a fee assessed to a few of the deposit methods. Paysafecard is one of them and it doesn’t make sense as to why any charge would be incurred. It’s a prepaid method so, essentially, the player is transferring in cash.
The minimums are low, though, so recreational players will be pleased. If you’re looking to deposit the highest amount, you’ll need to opt for a Neteller or Skrill transfer. I would recommend Neteller as it provides for a £8000 deposit and no fees are assessed.
There isn’t a bitcoin option, but Apple Pay is one of the accepted payments, and it’s not always easy to find a site that takes it.

Deposit Methods

Regardless of which financial option is selected, the funds should be immediately available to you in your betting account.
  • Visa
  • Mastercard
  • Maestro
  • Apple Pay
  • EntroPay
  • Online Bank Transfer By Skrill
  • Neteller
  • Skrill and Skrill 1-Tap
  • Paysafecard

Withdrawal Methods

Withdrawals are processed internally within 24 hours, which is relatively fast. I read through some player forums, and most people backed up that 24-hour window. However, the money will only be in your hands within that period if you opted for Neteller or Skrill as your deposit method.
Your payout uses the same system as for deposits and opting for these e-wallets eliminates a lengthy external processing.
Regarding fees for payouts, if you do a quick glance at the information table, you won’t see any listed. However, I did note that in a separate area comeon.com publicizes that only two free withdrawals are allowed for every 30 days. After that, there is a €5 charge for all subsequent cash outs.
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  • Bank Wire Transfer
  • Neteller
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Customer Service

The customer service department is reachable by live chat or email only. There isn’t a posted email address. You will need to use their prepared form if you don’t like the chat option.
As a tip, though, there are some great FAQs hidden in the help area. I searched to find these and came up empty until I clicked the tiny little green question mark on the right side of the screen that I thought would initiate a chat. Instead, I found a comprehensive help section tucked in there including all of the banking information that I previously couldn’t locate either.
So, your questions may be answered just by reviewing that information. But, if you do need to get one-on-one assistance, the service agents are known to be fast responding, courteous, and very helpful.
submitted by freespinsbonus to u/freespinsbonus [link] [comments]

A Mech's Life: A Close Call

Due to popular demand, I will switch inner dialogue/thoughts to italics.
Still working on Intro story as well, it's 75% done give or take, for next chapter.
First Previous Next
Edit: Oops, forgot to add the title properly. Mea Culpa.
---------------------------------
Steve heard the loud siren blaring and immediately responded by checking his surroundings with all of his available systems.
“Archives! What is this?”
Archives chimed in, voice still neutral even though everything seemed to be going wrong.
“It appears that the base’s defense systems have detected an intruder and are now following their protocols. I would advise to vacate the premises without delay.”
Steve stood right in front of the large metal door, it looked like a massive vault door he thought and hesitated before going forward.
“Is this the right way out, Archives? What do you know about these defense systems ?”
“Unknown. Due to security concerns, I am not equipped with much information regarding this base.”
Damn it! So close yet so far. Should have known everything was going too good.
“Alright, I’ve got an idea. Archives, I need you to speak to the pilot once more. Say this ‘Threat detected, autopilot system engaged’. Should work well enough to rouse less suspicion about me since I can’t afford to wait here while he plays with the controls. "
From within the cockpit, Steve heard Archives talking to the pilot, still with some static however but he figured it was good enough. He bent down and walked through the hole in the door but was able to stand up fully upright on the other side. This area being very dark as well, he toggled on his front lights in order to see what was on this side.
He was now in a massive alcove made of reinforced concrete. The ceiling was domed and there could have easily been three of him walking side by side without touching each other. An inclined slope went upwards from his location all the way to the end of the corridor until he could see another wall and what looked to be another open area to the right. Multiple light fixtures were present, cages of steel wires surrounding glass cubes with a bulb inside but none were still functional at this time.
Well this is going up and we’re underground so that’s a good sign. What are these things though on the side of the wal...oh. Fuck
Steve estimated that the distance to the end of the corridor was about 1 kilometer but what worried him was that every 15 feet, up above and part of the concrete construction were arrayed turrets. Thankfully, more than half of them seemed to be non-responsive but Steve would still have shat himself if he could when he saw the ones that worked extend from their resting position and turn to point at him.
The rusty turrets screamed as their mechanisms grinded to perform the task that they were told to do. Although still not used to this body and having only started walking a few minutes ago, Steve knew he had to make a run for it. Inside the cockpit, the pilot was having a fit and panicking, struggling helplessly against the harness and trying to regain control of the sentinel. Steve felt a bit bad for him, unable to control anything and stuck along for the ride. He would repay him some day for having helped him get out of there though.
The corridor was suddenly lit up by the afterglow of the thousands of rounds heading his way, a few turrets seized after their initial discharge making this slightly less painful but many rounds still found their mark and landed upon his body like a nest of furious wasps.
Steve ran with as much speed as he could muster, all the while taking a savage beating from the heavy rounds fired at him. His speed was rather good and after just a few seconds, he had ran past many of the active turrets which struggled to readjust to compensate for the target moving due to them being rusty. This granted Steve a much needed moment of respite and he kept going towards the end of the corridor, hoping to turn and get out of their line of sight.
Fuck! I can’t feel pain exactly but I do feel how all of these bang and dent me, sort of like taking punches. I should make sure nothing is damaged.

Calculating average integrity of exterior armor chassis….
87 % Head
74 % Chest
23 % Right Arm *WARNING*
?? % Left Arm *Reading Unavailable, Maintenance Required*
92 % Right Leg
66 % Left Leg
…
Calculating internal chassis structural integrity
...Readings indicate nominal
No internal damage, good so far. Do need to get fixed up though, I hope they have some good mechanics.
Steve made it to the end of the corridor just as the turrets finished rotating and dashed to the right where the corridor continued. A few stray rounds clattered loudly against his back but he ignored it and pressed on. Not far in front of him, the corridor seemingly ended and was packed with earth with roots from plants and trees winding their way out of the earth.
..what? Did it cave in or something? This whole base will self-destruct soon too! I’m not going to be stuck here after all this work!
Enraged, Steve straightened his hand to punch in the earth and then curved his hand to use it like a shovel, moving substantial amounts of earth out of the way.
After a dozen or so scoops of earth being moved out of the way, small rays of light penetrated the otherwise complete darkness.
Emboldened by the progress he saw, Steve pressed on and redoubled his efforts. When he was satisfied with the size of the opening, Steve crouched down and jumped, pushing with all power. The earth shuddered and gave way, the large metal body exiting with tremendous force.
Having jumped more than 40 feet in the air, Steve was now slightly worried about the landing. So was Sonjo from what he could see from inside the cockpit. He braced himself and landed with one knee bent, trying to spread out the impact damage.
The ground was relatively soft, compared to a 50+ ton mech anyways, and the chassis seemed to take in the impact rather well. Sonjo on the other hand did not take it too well and seemed rather rattled. Then came the real blow. The base's self-destruct activated and the ground started lifting beneath Steve's feet.
He was propelled forward by a massive force pushing against him and tumbled through trees, breaking them in the process. After the explosion subsided, Steve checked himself.
I think I'm.. Okay. Armor held up very well. I'm impressed, this mech is pretty solid.
Steven then noticed that the pilot was no longer moving. Worried, he ran a medical diagnostic.

Steve intervened before it could complete and stopped the process.

Better this way for now. Maybe he won't remember exactly what happened. He's not injured so he should wake up. If he doesn't within 12 hours, I'll wake him up then. Still, I’m not quite sure what to do about him...
Steve then sat down and relaxed, ignoring his upcoming problems and enjoyed his newfound freedom but also spent some time thinking about what was next for him. Looking up at the star filled sky, he wondered where he was now and what the future had in store for him.
​
Some time later..
Sonjo’s awakening was rather unpleasant. One of his arms was very numb from having had pressure on it while he was passed out and he was sore all over. Looking at the screens, he noticed that he was outside. He tried to rack his brain trying to remember how he got here but it was all so blurry. He then remembered his injuries but when he went to check, he seemed fine.
There was one thing he remembered however, the sentinel had spoken to him. It was distorted and he could only make out a few words of it but it had definitely spoken to him. On a whim he decided to test out his theory.
“Hey sentinel, what happened?”
At first there was no reply and Sonjo was just about to dismiss imagining the sentinel speaking to him as a result of his injuries but then a feminine voice spoke out to him.
“Upon detec&$%+ of a sub-SCRH-antial threat, the autopil@# was! #$?ivated.”
Sonjo was in awe and speechless. A talking sentinel! He’d never heard of anything like that before. He had so many questions but badly needed to get out of the sentinel first.
“Wow. That’s amazing. I’m not sure what most of those words mean but I take it that it's your doing that we’re out here. I have so many questions but first can you remove this thing around me here, I need to pee, badly.”
The harness retracted into the sentinel’s cockpit and the door opened. Sonjo ran out and went behind a tree to do his business.
Coming back, his steps were light and he felt like his heart was about to fly out of his chest. He then looked at the sentinel.
“We’re finally free and I have my very own sentinel..wow, I can’t believe it. I’ll have grandma look you over and we’ll fix you right up. You’ll be glorious.”
Sonjo then remembered the large trove of ancient artifacts in the underground base. Looking around however, he could not see how they had exited nor where the base was.
“Sentinel, where’s the base? We need to go back after I bring you to my tribe and we fix you up.”
“Und^¿¬ground milit@$& base self-destructed upon our exit. It is destroy-SCR-."
The sentinel’s reply was hard to make out but he understood enough that it crushed all hopes he had of being obscenely rich.
“Oh...dang. Well, on the upside at least I'm alive and you’re out here with me. Do I just keep calling you sentinel or do you have a name?”
The sentinel replied swiftly and it still amazed Sonjo. It was almost like having a conversation with someone, minus the distortions and the mechanical way it spoke.
"Unkn¿¡¬¦ use of word 'Senti&$@'. I am the Archives, an AI created to assi-SCRH- the Astra's pilot.
“Wait..are you not the sentin--uhh robot, I am talking to?”
“Negative. Proces~#%$ a way to convey the proper meaning to you...I am mo-SCRH- akin to an interactive instruction manual. Is this @>:{nation sufficient?”
“..I think I understand. So when I was speaking earlier, you probably overheard me and acted on what I was saying as like..orders or commands of some kind?”
“...Affirmative.”
“Wow. I’ve heard of some ancient technology that was voice controlled, very very rare and almost impossible to repair but a voice controlled sentinel...amazing.”
I might just have a unique sentinel like the Thunder Lord!
“So I call you ‘Archives’? And the name of the sentinel itself is ‘Astra’?”
“Corr3*&t. What is the pilot's designation? "
"My name? It's Sonjo."
"Registering pilot 'Sonjo'... Complete."
Sonjo clapped his hands together and smiled.
“Wonderful! Now, priority number one is getting back to camp. I’m sure everyone is worried sick by now and I can’t wait to show them what I found! Plus, you could use a bit of fixing and grandma is the best mechanic that I know of.”
Sonjo fetched his backpack and opened it, grabbing his map to try and situate himself. He also checked the motherboard he had smuggled out and was visibly relieved when the package seemed fine. Unfolding his map, Sonjo began trying to look for obvious landmarks or points of interests that could easily tell him where he was but it was a rather difficult thing.
“I think our best bet is to find the main road and we can then move along it until we hit a fork, that should give us a good estimate of where we are.”
Sonjo waited for the Archives to reply but it didn’t. He assumed it was due to not speaking directly to it.
I forgot it’s not really human so it probably doesn’t know context, situational awareness, etc.
Sonjo sighed and walked to the sitting sentinel to begin climbing aboard. Once comfortably seated, he addressed the Archives.
“Do you think you can give me a crash course on how to control the senti---, I mean the Astra? I’ve sort of just been blindly going at it so far.”
“Affi#&*tive. S@tting up tutorial pr-SCRH-am…”
submitted by Digital332006 to HFY [link] [comments]

plus minus bet calculator video

The Free Bet Calculator is the most advanced online sports bet calculator, allowing you to calculate the stake and profit for an extensive range of bets. All of the most popular bet types are supported, including Lucky 15, Single, Double, Accumulator, Patent and Round Robin, along with more specialised bets such as Alphabet, Magnificent 7, Union Jack, and the infamous Bookies Nightmare! A parlay calculator is a betting tool that aids gaming investors find out the odds and results of a parlay bet. A parlay, also known as an accumulator, is 1 bet whose results are usually determined by 2 or even more underlying bets. When successful, it offers greater returns to the investor since it links up many events for a higher payout. If the parlay is to win, each of the bets must win ... When using an American odds bet calculator, you will only be required to know your stake and odds, the calculator will do the rest. Sports betting odds profit calculator. Decimal Odds. Decimal odds are very popular across the globe with most online sportsbooks using decimal odds as their default. With decimal odds, you get the sum of the amount you would get in return for a $1 bet. At most ... Betting Calculator - Enter your odds and stake to calculate bet returns for all types of sport wager. Supports all major formats including decimal, fraction and american. Dutching Calculator - Odds changed since you placed your last bet? Use this calculator to work out the stakes necessary to guarantee a fixed return irregardless of the outcome. Bet Calculator Work out potential winnings for any type of bet or check winning bets have been settled correctly with our bet calculator. Enter your stake, bet type, odds (fractional or decimal), place terms (if applicable) and then hit the calculate button. This blackjack calculator will help teach you the correct play to make for every scenario possible. Our advanced algorithm allows you to customize different table rules so you can make the best informed decision to beat the house. It will calculate the best possible option depending on the criteria by telling you the best statistical play: Whether to Hit, Stand, Surrender, Double or Split. How ... American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. On the flip side, the plus-minus juice can also encourage gamblers to wager on a longshot. If the Los Angeles Lakers are a +500 to win the NBA championship, a successful $100 bet would net $500. moneyline calculator, money line calculator, money line bet calculator, moneyline bet calculator, sports betting calculator, point spread calculator, spread calculator, moneyline payout calculator, pachostar, pachostar calculator, over/under calculator, moneyline calc, moneyline odds calculator When you bet on the favorite you get worse payout odds on your bet since they’re more likely to win. The team with a negative number (like -110) is the favorite. The number next to the minus sign is the amount you must bet to win $100 in profit. If the number is -110, you must bet $110 to win $100. Odds with a Plus Sign (Underdog) When you see a plus sign in front of a number (like +150 for ...

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plus minus bet calculator

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